Labor’s victory in Saturday’s federal election could be broadly predicted by the average shift in national political sentiment over the past 30 years.

The 837 seats held by the Coalition, Labor and non-major parties/independents in upper and lower houses of the nine federal, state and territory jurisdictions since 1992 reveal a cycle that begins in the large states and then flows on to Canberra. (The federal parliament accounts for slightly more than 25 per cent of seats.)