Jim Chalmers’ mid-year economic and fiscal update (MYEFO) will reflect upward revisions to revenue and expenditure, the latter including the impact of last week’s national cabinet decisions on NDIS and health funding. However, most of the changes coming out of national cabinet lie beyond the forward estimates.

The net effect may improve the budget bottom line, there will be continuing small deficits over the forward estimates and the 10-year medium-term, and debt as a percentage of GDP will begin to fall gradually in the next few years.