While Labor has crept over the line in 2022 on minor party preferences, it’s hard to see how either Labor or the Coalition in their current form can win a majority of seats in the House of Representatives at the next federal election in 2025.

For the traditional two-party system to work, the major parties need to win at least two-thirds of the House of Representatives seats on the primary vote, as we last saw in 2004 when the majors won 89 out of 150 seats. This number dropped to 64 seats in 2010, 46 seats in 2019 and just 12 seats out of 151 seats this year.