The refreshed possibility of a surplus this year in Tuesday’s budget is no reason to celebrate – and it’s certainly no time to be restocking the “back in black” mugs.

The improvements are driven by bracket creep, strong population growth and deliberate under-forecasting of commodity prices, which mean that as the economy slows – which it inevitably will – deficits will return and the back in black mugs will be consigned to the far corner of the cupboard again.