After a period of relative calm and optimism as restrictions were being relaxed across the nation a clutch of cases in Victoria seems to spread alarm of a “second wave.” Are we losing the battle? Could this lead to another series of large-scale lockdowns?

Usually one would answer these questions using epidemiological modelling of cases and the impact of various restrictions on likely numbers. However, modelling is only as good as the volume and veracity of data that goes into it. As the real cases in a community come down to a small handful, the margin of error of the predictions gets wider.