The trade war is winding down because it has outlived its usefulness to Beijing. We should not rely on the new stability for political leverage at home or abroad.
In coming months, all things being equal, Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang is likely to visit Australia, paving the way for Anthony Albanese to go to Beijing.
Any number of things could blow such plans off course. A military incident pitting China against the US and one of its allies in north Asia, the ongoing detention of two prominent Chinese Australians in China, or Canberra’s refusal to support Beijing’s entry into a regional trade pact. Name your bilateral poison.
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Richard McGregor is a senior fellow at the Lowy Institute in Sydney.
