The rapidly escalating coronavirus pandemic has undoubtedly become the greatest health and economic crisis in modern times. It is first and foremost, a public health emergency. But as the virus spreads and governments take dramatic actions to curb the disease, it is also rapidly causing a global economic crisis. A prolonged outbreak – with reduced demand, disturbed supply chains and increasing uncertainty – could lead to widespread job losses and businesses closing down and cause other second-order economic effects.

The economic impact of the disease will importantly depend on how successfully societies can collectively contain transmission by drastically pruning contact networks. Absent swift and effective action, the number of deaths and infections will grow dramatically, health systems will become overwhelmed, businesses will struggle to function and the global economy will suffer major consequences. Given the tight correlation between economic performance and health (life expectancy), the more the economy suffers, the worse the long-term health impacts will be.