National Australia Bank’s Philip Chronican says heavy reliance on bulk commodity exports for prosperity, an uncompetitive industrial base, and climate change fallout will make the transition to a net-zero future more costly and difficult than people realise.

A new report commissioned by the NAB chairman predicts Australia could generate $435 billion in extra gross domestic product by mid-century if it succeeds in replacing its current carbon-laden drivers of growth and income from new export sources led by green energy, steel and critical minerals.