If the financial markets are accurate and the Reserve Bank of Australia reduces the official 4.35 per cent cash rate on February 18, governor Michele Bullock will want to emphasise that only a shallow rate-cutting cycle is on the cards.

I remain of the belief that the monetary policy decision in less than two weeks is a much more finely balanced call for the nine-member RBA board than the markets are indicating by pricing in more than a 90 per cent chance of a rate cut.