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Two other interest rate debates will decide where the ASX goes next

A February rate cut is all but locked in. But with the Australian sharemarket back near record highs, investors need to consider two other big questions. 

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Forget those worries about DeepSeek. Ignore that crappy Chinese economic data. Shrug off the falling Australian dollar. Wednesday’s softer-than-expected inflation data means the first rate cut is upon us, and the ASX 200 is back within a bee’s wing of the record high it set last December.

The only group that might be more excited than investors about the consumer price index numbers is Anthony Albanese’s cabinet, which looks certain to go to the federal election with a rate cut tailwind. Money markets see a 90 per cent chance the first cut comes in February and economists have rapidly fallen in line.

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James Thomson is senior Chanticleer columnist based in Melbourne. He was the Companies editor and editor of BRW Magazine. Connect with James on Twitter. Email James at j.thomson@afr.com

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    Original URL: https://www.afr.com/chanticleer/two-other-interest-rate-debates-will-decide-where-the-asx-goes-next-20250129-p5l80o