September 2024
Harris sees a different world from Biden
Joe Biden was a foreign policy veteran, and Kamala Harris is a novice who has impressed quickly. But in age and instinct, her view of the world will be different.
August 2024
What does China make of America’s topsy-turvy election?
Beijing will have trouble working out whether a hard or soft approach to a new US administration will work best.
January 2024
This US election will be America versus itself
The United States is set to emerge from this election year only more disunited than it was at the start of 2024.
July 2023
Cornered Putin might be rational and not lash out with nukes
The Wagner mutiny suggests that if the Ukrainian counteroffensive were to trigger genuine unrest at home, the Russian president might make a peace deal to save his regime.
February 2023
Rogue Russia will become a global version of Iran
Although sanctioned and isolated, Vladimir Putin cannot afford to back down. So expect an escalation in cyberattacks, disinformation, and nuclear threats.
December 2021
Despite its posturing, Russia is unlikely to invade Ukraine
Any Russian push to grab new territory inside Ukraine would trigger a war that Russia would win, but at a prohibitive cost in lives and money.
March 2021
Joe Biden has a wildcard with China
Does the US President put security or the economy first in tackling Beijing. Or is there a potentially even bigger issue in play here?
January 2021
Welcome to the new normal of America's 'asterisk president'
An America that cannot even agree who its president is will be in no shape to lead the rest of the democratic world.
October 2020
There's no brave new Biden world
Donald Trump did not really change the world's geopolitical trajectory. That sets up for continuity if the White House changes hands.
May 2020
US and China will come out strongest - and ready to fight
A combination of strength abroad and political pressure at home will be a highly combustible mix in Washington and Beijing.
January 2020
Globalisation is under assault but continues to serve us well
A trend that has vastly improved the human condition will also help us cope with the economic and geopolitical crises of the new decade.