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Despite its posturing, Russia is unlikely to invade Ukraine

Despite its posturing, Russia is unlikely to invade Ukraine

Any Russian push to grab new territory inside Ukraine would trigger a war that Russia would win, but at prohibitive cost in lives and money.

Russia has moved nearly 100,000 soldiers into position near its border with Ukraine over the past several weeks.

If that weren’t ominous enough, Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky has said his security services have uncovered evidence of a coup plot against his government that is backed by Russia. He has also said a prominent Russian oligarch was involved in the plot, upping the stakes in his continuing struggle with some of Ukraine’s wealthiest men, a few of whom are believed to have close ties with Moscow.

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Ian Bremmer
Ian BremmerGeostrategistIan Bremmer is the president of Eurasia Group and GZERO Media.

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Original URL: https://www.afr.com/policy/foreign-affairs/despite-its-posturing-russia-is-unlikely-to-invade-ukraine-20211207-p59fh7