Cornered Putin might be rational and not lash out with nukes
The Wagner mutiny suggests that if the Ukrainian counteroffensive were to trigger genuine unrest at home, the Russian president might make a peace deal to save his regime.
Vladimir Putin has survived the most dramatic and direct challenge to his 23-year reign, and the mutinous mercenary oligarch Yevgeny Prigozhin is in the process of being disarmed. Calm has been restored, at least on the surface. And in Ukraine, the war grinds on.
Now that the dust has settled, has the aborted insurrection in Russia changed anything? What have we learnt?
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Ian Bremmer is the president of Eurasia Group and GZERO Media.
