Modelling shows how many Tasmanians could have been infected with COVID-19

Tasmania could have quickly been overcome with the deadly coronavirus if it weren’t for early intervention, grim modelling shows. SEE THE FIGURES>>

NINE out of 10 Tasmanians could have been infected with coronavirus had social distancing measures not been rolled out, modelling has revealed.

The State Government will release its Economic and Fiscal Update Report today, which will outline the impact of the actions taken to mitigate the risk in Tasmania.

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Premier Peter Gutwein said modelling considered by the National Cabinet showed that if far-reaching action had not been taken, up to 89.1 per cent of the Australian population could have been infected with the virus, with up to 1.4 million people requiring hospitalisation.

This would have resulted in about 477,000 Tasmanians infected with COVID-19 and 29,400 being hospitalised.

Premier Peter Gutwein at the daily COVID-19 update. Picture: ZAK SIMMONDS

An unmitigated COVID-19 pandemic in Australia would have dramatically exceeded the capacity of the health system, Mr Gutwein said.

“The necessary actions taken to slow the spread of the disease has resulted in significant economic consequences,” he said.

“Yet, had these actions not been taken, both the health and economic crisis would have been significantly more far-reaching.”

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Mr Gutwein said the release of the report would highlight that Tasmania’s “strong” budget position prior to the pandemic helped shape the state’s response to the pandemic.

“We are somewhat buffered by the fact we faced COVID-19 with the strongest growing economy in the nation, equal to Victoria, and implemented an early plan to ban cruise ships and close our borders, to mitigate against a deadly, uncontained spread of the virus,” Mr Gutwein said.

He said the road to recovery would depend on a range of social and economic factors, including the need to live and work with the pandemic until a vaccine was found.

“Safety measures, including hygiene practices and physical distancing, will continue to impact the way we operate socially and in business,” he said.

“There will without doubt be a change in the way world economies, domestic and local economies operate.

“We will work with Tasmanians to rebuild what we’ve lost, to recreate our strong growing economy, the jobs it supported, and our way of life.”

Tasmania on Thursday recorded its seventh straight day with no new coronavirus cases.