Cost of living, affordability could decide Victorian election

The state election is not expected to be settled over the government’s handling of the Covid pandemic. Instead, Victorians say one topic will ultimately sway their vote.

The cost of living has emerged as the key issue for Victorian voters a year out from the 2022 state election.

Small business and housing affordability also ranked as major issues as Victorians look toward a Covid recovery.

The usual state election issues, including health, school funding and new infrastructure, are no longer major concerns for voters.

The new data by research and polling firm RedBridge revealed almost one quarter of voters, 22.7 per cent, considered the cost of living as most likely to influence their vote.

Climate change, small business and housing affordability ranked next as major concerns, followed by health funding, job security, new infrastructure and schools.

A fifth of respondents, 19.3 per cent, ranked climate change as their top concern.

Only Labor and Greens voters, university-educated respondents, and those who earned more than $120,000, considered climate change a more significant issue.

Those aligned with the Liberal Party, United Australia Party or One Nation deemed climate change a non issue.

Premier Daniel Andrews has poured billions into infrastructure despite it now not being a priority for many Victorians. Picture: Getty

The heat will be on opposition leader Matthew Guy to put election pressure on Dan Andrews. Picture: Andrew Henshaw

Mortgage stress emerged as a key concern, with 75 per cent of respondents expecting interest rates to rise next year.

Only 6.9 per cent of respondents considered new infrastructure a key issue, while 3.4 per cent of people said school funding was a main concern.

Victorian Council of Social Service chief Emma King said Covid-19 had increased concerns around the cost of living.

“So many Victorians were doing it tough before Covid, and that number has only grown since,” she said.

“Cost of living is absolutely a top-tier issue heading into an election year.

“A whole new group of people are struggling to pay their bills for the first time in their lives — and they all get a vote.”

RedBridge senior consultant Tony Barry said the poll showed general financial concerns across the electorate as Victoria emerged from the pandemic.

“Cost-of-living pressure is going to be the sleeper issue on the 2022 political calendar,” he said. “If the major parties don’t start talking about kitchen table economics, they are going to continue to bleed votes to the minor parties.”

Most important issue

Thinking about the upcoming state election, which of the following issues is most important to you?

 

Cost of living – 22.7%

Climate change – 19.3%

Small business – 14.1%

Housing affordability – 11.6%

Hospital and COVID funding – 11.4%

Job security – 10.6%

New infrastructure – 6.9%

School funding – 3.4%

 

Source: RedBridge phone survey of 2442 people conducted on November 26-28

The poll, which surveyed 2400 voters in eight key seats on November 26-28, found 65 per cent of voters supported vaccine mandates for workers.

While opposition to the mandates was strongest among United Australia Party and One Nation Voters, and support strongest among Labor voters, Liberal voters were split.

RedBridge director Kos Samaras said the issue could prove problematic for the state opposition, given the split among its voter base.

Originally published as Cost of living, affordability could decide Victorian election