Opinion: How all the major parties ended up on the nose with voters

Victorians are turning off Labor and the Liberal Party in numbers that, if seen at the ballot box come November, would shake up politics in this state.

Both major parties are on the nose with Victorian voters, providing the opportunity to change in state politics in a meaningful way.

A year out from the 2022 state election and there is a definite trend emerging in the polls: the major parties are on the nose.

Victorians are turning off Labor and the Liberal Party in numbers that, if seen at the ballot box come November, would shake up politics in this state. Because it would clear the way for another party to enter the mix in a meaningful way.

But the trend should also shake up the next 12 months of election campaigning as the major parties try to win back a growing number of disaffected voters.

New polling out today shows almost 40 per cent of Victorians no longer back either Labor or the Liberal Party. Many of those perceive themselves as Victoria’s forgotten people.

Less than a third, or 32 per cent, say they currently plan to vote Labor.

That’s a 10 per cent drop in primary votes for the ALP since the 2018 election, and five points lower than similar polling results from June. Hardly a ringing endorsement.

Fewer still plan to vote for the Liberal Party.

Of course factor in preferences and Labor would hold onto power for another four years, with about 52 per cent to the Coalition’s 48 per cent.

There’s been a 10 per cent drop in primary votes for the ALP since the 2018 election.

Stick to the primary vote and it’s clear fed up Victorians are demanding change.

Combined, primary vote support for the major parties is sitting at about 61 per cent.

At the 2018 election the two parties snared 72 per cent of first votes.

The trend away from the majors has been evident for some months. Strikingly, both political parties seem to be suffering in their safe seats.

Labor is experiencing some minor attrition to minor parties and independents in Melbourne’s outer west.

Recent polling showed that despite 44 per cent of voters in Melbourne’s west identifying as traditional ALP voters, only 36 per cent would vote to re-elect the party.

Internal ALP research also raised alarm bells when it showed lockdown fatigue had turned against the government much quicker and harder than they thought it would.

The Liberal Party continues to lose ground to independents and other parties in its once blue ribbon seats.

A survey in the safe seat of Kew last month found the party had experienced a 10 per cent drop in primary vote, with all of it going to independents and minor parties.

So what of the almost 40 per cent who say they are still undecided or will back minor parties?

If they indeed direct their votes away from the major parties, the next parliamentary term will look very different indeed.

When the Greens picked up 10 per cent of the primary vote in 2018 they scored three lower house seats.

New political outfit the Victorians Party has positioned itself as centrist, and wants to take seats from both Labor and the Libs.

There are clearly seats up for grabs.

And with the party aiming to field a candidate in every seat, the potential to make an impact is there.

They will seize on issues that recent polling shows are emerging as key to voting intentions: the cost of living, climate change, small business, and housing affordability.

Already thousands of people have signed up as members to the new party, which is being pushed by Small Business Australia’s Bill Lang.

He says internal party research has also shown a shift away from the major parties.

Remarkably that research mirrors today’s polling, finding close to 40 per cent of Victorians feel unrepresented.

“The clear feedback is that many in the community feel that neither side represents them,” Lang says.

Labor would still hold power over the Liberals with about 52 per cent to the Coalition’s 48 per cent. Picture: David Geraghty

“We have a Premier who is happy to divide the State, creating winners and losers, with his intention to have enough winners from his Covid policies – that is those in the public sector and union movement who have had very little economic disruption throughout Covid to get him re-elected – while others, such as small business families have borne the brunt of the economic impact of the virus.

“This has been coupled with an opposition who have struggled to cut through and again the message we get is that neither side is representing the interests of what we see as close to 40 per cent of Victorians, leaving our population divided like never before.”

The United Australia Party could also have a huge impact.

It has moved ahead of the Greens as Victoria’s third most popular party, with 7.4 per cent of people saying they would back candidates if they ran in 2022.

Apart from picking up seats, it could also decide the outcome of a handful of electorates based on where it directs preferences.

It’s tempting to scoff at the polling given recent unreliability of polls.

Who could forget the successive opinion polls that all but handed Bill Shorten the keys to the Lodge before Scott Morrison’s shock win.

But generally, good polling hits close to the mark.

Since 1993, Newspoll has accurately predicted the winner of the two-party vote about 80 per cent of the time.

In 2010 and 2016 the polling almost exactly matched the result.

Regardless of just how much weight you give to polls, the trend away from the majors is hard to ignore.