Victorians voters turning against Labor, Liberal parties

Andrews government minister Martin Pakula says voters will return to Labor after a poll uncovered a shock revelation about support for both of Victoria’s major parties.

Major Events Minister Martin Pakula has backed voters to return to Labor in time for the next state election, saying it was common for Victorians to remain undecided a year out from an election.

It comes after exclusive polling for the Herald Sun revealed both major parties had taken a battering in support, with a swathe of voters either undecided or drifting to minor parties.

The United Australia Party has also moved ahead of the Greens, as Victoria’s third most popular party, with 7.4 per cent of people saying they would support it.

The poll, conducted a year out from the state election, found less than a third of Victorians – 32.4 per cent – said they would currently vote Labor.

This represents a drop of more than 10 per cent from the 42.9 per cent who backed the ALP to victory in 2018 and is only 2 per cent higher than the disastrous Liberal vote at the last election.

Support for the Liberal Party has dropped further still, from 30.43 per cent to 28.8 per cent.

By far the largest number of people, almost 40 per cent, said they were undecided or would back the minor parties.

Martin Pakula says the election is still 12 months away. Picture: Sarah Matray

The poll, conducted by bipartisan research and polling firm RedBridge, surveyed 2400 voters in eight key seats from November 26 to 28.

RedBridge director Kos Samaras said: “At the moment what we are seeing is a Liberal primary vote unable to punch through its 2018 levels and a Labor primary experiencing pressure from minor parties”.

When asked about the poll, Mr Pakula said the election was still 12 months away.

“At this point in the electoral cycle you’ll always find voters effectively parking their votes,” he said.

“They’ve got a lot of time to make up their minds.

“If people focus on the fact that, you know, we’ve largely navigated Covid.

“The national approach, ultimately when you compare it to what’s happening in the rest of the world, I think stands up well.

“The Andrews government’s approach, to health to education to job creation I think also stands up very well.

“Voters will have the next 12 months to assess the two parties. I think those assessments will serve the government well.”

Mr Pakula also attacked Coalition by saying voters may not approve of engaging with groups who have protested the government’s pandemic laws and vaccine mandates.

“Particularly when one considers that the opposition has, in recent times, been throwing their lot in with that very, very small part of the community that seems not to want to prioritise vaccinations or public health outcomes,” he said.

Daniel Andrews’ Labor Party has experienced a drop in support. Picture: David Crosling

Mr Pakula also confirmed that he was not opposed to running for a spot in Victoria’s upper house at the next election now that his lower house seat of Keysborough had been abolished.

“Nothing’s confirmed until the national executive meets but I’ve indicated that a move to the Legislative Council holds no terrors for me,” he said.

“I have been in the upper house before. I view it more nostalgically than others might and I’m very, very relaxed if that’s where things ultimately end up.”

The support for both major parties is expected to improve at next year’s election, with many of the 9.7 per cent of people who said they were undecided likely to swing in behind one or the other.

RedBridge estimated once the undecided vote was redistributed, Labor’s primary total would lift to 36 per cent, still down nearly 7 per cent on its 2018 vote. The Liberals would creep up to 32 per cent, an increase of less than 2 per cent on the 2018 thumping.

Once all the independents’ and minors’ preferences are fed back to the traditional powerhouses, RedBridge predicts Labor would emerge victorious with 54 per cent of the two-party preferred vote, losing a handful of seats but still winning comfortably.

State vote intention

If a Victorian state election was held today, which of the following parties would receive your first preference vote?

Party	NOV 2021 (Primary)	NOV 2021 (Primary redistributed*)	2018 ELECTION
Labor	32.4%	36%	42.86%
Liberal	28.8%	32%	30.43%
United Australia Party	7.4%	8%	N/A
The Greens	7.3%	8%	10.71%
One Nation	4.6%	5%	N/A
Independent	5.4%	6%	6.07%
Another Party	4.4%	5%	5.16%
Undecided	9.7%	N/A	N/A

 

*Primary vote, with undecided votes redistributed 

 

Two-party preferred

Party	NOV 2021	2018 ELECTION
Labor	54%	57.3%
Coalition	46%	42.7%

 

Source: RedBridge phone survey of 2442 people conducted on November 26-28

But the low primary vote will greatly worry both major parties and could signal a significant shift amid unprecedented times.

And the UAP and even the new centrist Victorians Party could pick up a handful of upper house seats and influence the results in critical lower house seats, depending on who they preference.

UAP spokesman Andrew Crook said the party would field candidates in every Victorian seat at the upcoming federal election, while a decision about whether to register a Victorian branch of the party had not yet been made.

Mr Samaras predicted Clive Palmer’s huge advertising campaign backing the UAP would definitely impact the upcoming federal election.

But he said: “It’s unclear if this level of voter volatility is sustained beyond that and into the state election”.

Support for Matthew Guy’s Liberal party has dropped further still. Picture: David Geraghty

RedBridge senior consultant Tony Barry said there was still hope for the Liberals.

“If Liberal Party headquarters can execute a good campaign there’s an opportunity to harvest votes from the minor parties and make some significant electoral gains,” he said.

Small Business Australia executive director Bill Lang, who is part of a team behind the Victorians Party, said it also had research which showed there was a shift away from the major parties. He said the Victorians Party would aim to field candidates in every seat. “The clear feedback is that many in the community feel that neither side represents them. It is this feedback that led to the formation of the Victorians Party,” he said.

The poll was conducted across the seats of Eureka, Eltham, Brighton, Bentleigh, Evelyn, Carrum, Kalkallo and Melton.

Originally published as Victorians voters turning against Labor, Liberal parties