Why did Cyclone Alfred stall off the Queensland coast? Four experts explain

After Cyclone Alfred stalled off the Queensland coast, we asked four experts why it happened and what it means for landfall - and it likely means the impact will be far more prolonged.

As Cyclone Alfred slowed it’s track to southeast Queensland to a crawl overnight, pushing out its expected landfall to later Friday or even Saturday, we asked four experts what that could mean for the system’s impact.

And it’s not good news.

Helen Reid

The Bureau of Meteorology

Bureau of Meteorology meteorologist Helen Reid said Tropical Cyclone Alfred’s run to the Queensland coast slowed overnight due to a lack of influence from a separate weather system.

“There was a little bit of meandering and no distinct movement in any direction over the night and that was because of not having any steering in the upper atmosphere or elsewhere to help it move,” she said.

“Tropical cyclones are their own little system, they need to be moved along by something else.

“So that period overnight, we saw it just hovering in the same place for that period.”

Ms Reid added the lack of movement overnight will mean another day of exposure to strong winds for coastal areas.

“The impact will be most felt by the coastline, those waves have been able to crash in for an extra day meaning coastal damage and erosion there,” she said.

The Cyclone Alfred track map.

“It’s also another day of those storm force winds out on the waters as well, so all those offshore impacts have just been continued for a day.”

Ms Reid said the latest modelling shows Tropical Cyclone Alfred is still tracking towards the Queensland coast.

“Currently Tropical Cyclone Alfred is 325 kilometres east of Brisbane and it is expected to move to the west today, therefore closer to the coast,” she said.

“We are still expecting gale-force winds along the coastline between Double Island Point all the way down through into New South Wales, we’re expecting gales in that zone within the next 24 hours.

“At this stage, we’re expecting it to continue as a category two cyclone with landfall likely between Friday and Saturday.”

Tony Auden

Channel 7

Channel 7 meteorologist Tony Auden said the slowing down of Tropical Cyclone Alfred has had a big impact on its forecast track.

“First, we’ve had a reminder today (Wednesday) of how erratic tropical cyclone movement can be, with big wobbles in Alfred’s path this afternoon,” Mr Auden said.

“Looking ahead, almost all model guidance has made a significant change to the forecast track. This is only partially reflected in the current BOM track, as they keep a lot of older guidance in their data to minimise rapid changes (a good idea to minimise false rapid changes most of the time, but it does mean that changes like this take a while to be reflected in the official forecast).

Tropical Cyclone Alfred is tipped to make landfall on Saturday.

“In short, it looks like Alfred will stall off the coast on Friday, rather than crossing, then likely move over land on Saturday.

“It’s all due to the next upper trough approaching from the west.”

Mr Auden said the slowing down of the category 2 system potentially means “Alfred will hang around for longer”.

“Things are becoming a lot less certain in the forecast track, so expect more changes,” he said.

“It’s most likely bad news, as Alfred will hang around for longer.

“Large waves will likely hang around longer into the weekend.

“With a delayed coastal crossing, we need to wait for updated timing to assess the storm surge risk.

“Strong winds will likely hang around on the coast for longer, possibly for most of the weekend.”

Huge swells off Snapper Rocks. Picture: Nigel Hallett

Marina Neuman

Sky News Weather

Sky News Weather meteorologist Marina Neuman said while Tropical Cyclone Alfred has slowed significantly, there is a chance the category two system could intensify.

“Well, the cyclone has slowed dramatically in the last few hours, we had previously been saying the timeline for the system to make landfall would be between Friday and Saturday,” she said.

“At one point, early this morning, it did look to make landfall a bit sooner, but that has once again changed with the system nearly stalling just off the coast of Queensland, so it is currently moving very slowly.

“It’s still just a category two storm, but it is starting to strengthen a bit, we’re seeing the winds at 130 km/h at this moment in time.”

Ms Neuman said rainfall totals and wind speeds are expected to increase from today.

“We’re going to start to see the rainfall totals really picking up, that’s going to start to happen as we head into the late afternoon, early evening, especially for South East Queensland,” she said.

“We are looking at the landfall to actually be between Brisbane and the Gold Coast, so that’s where we’re going to start to see the higher rainfall totals picking up.

“Wind speeds have already begun to pick up now, but they’re really going to start to pick up as we head into the evening and into Friday morning.

“With the potential impacts of the system, we could see destructive wind gusts, we could have up to 155 km/h.

“We could really start to see coastal erosion, very high storm surge and then we’re also looking at the potential for about 500 to 700 millimetres of total rainfall.”

In pictures: TC Alfred smashes beaches from Sunny Coast to Byron Bay

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Thomas Hinterdorfer

Higgins Storm Chasing

Thomas Hinterdorfer of Higgins Storm Chasing said while Tropical Cyclone Alfred slowed down overnight, it was still expected to make landfall in Queensland.

“Alfred did a bit of a wobbly on everyone yesterday, it did a little bit of a loop and slowed down and stalled for a bit - basically, all that’s done is delayed the inevitable,” Mr Hinterdorfer said.

“The system is still expected to track towards South East Queensland to make landfall Friday afternoon or Friday night as a category two system.

“It hasn’t changed too much, it’s just everything’s been delayed.”

Shops at Wynnum shut ahead of Cyclone Alfred. Picture: John Gass

Mr Hinterdorfer attributed the slowing down of Tropical Cyclone Alfred to “competing steering ridges”.

“The main reason for that slow down and stall was just a temporary conflict of steering ridges and patterns,” he said.

“The steering of the system just got interrupted for a bit, just by some competing steering ridges.

“It means that it’s going to be a bit slower moving towards South East Queensland.”

Mr Hinterdorfer said conditions are expected to deteriorate today.

“Conditions will deteriorate throughout the day, mostly in coastal areas,” he said.

“So those beach conditions across the Gold Coast are going to remain dangerous and very hazardous.

“Rain areas will start to increase throughout the day, especially through those coast areas, but some will start to track further inland from the coast, and then the winds will pick up throughout the day.”

Despite blue skies being visible across parts of South East Queensland earlier today, Mr Hinterdorfer urged Queenslanders not to become complacent in their preparations.

“A lot of people are confused as to why there is still blue sky,” he said.

“For a lot of people, there’s no wind, there’s no rain, it’s not crazy weather like we were anticipating.

“Everything has just been delayed, that’s all it is, the inevitable is still coming.”

Originally published as Why did Cyclone Alfred stall off the Queensland coast? Four experts explain