Opinion: Why Miles will lose but Albo can still win

With rapidly changing economic fortunes, all Australians – not just Queenslanders – might be sent to the polls in late 2024, writes Paul Williams.

Next year could be a busier political calendar for Queenslanders than you think.

We’re already down for a state election on October 26, but with rapidly changing economic fortunes nationally, all Australians might be sent to the polls in late 2024.

But let’s look at Queensland first.

Opinion polls long told us former premier Annastacia Palaszczuk would lead Labor to almost certain defeat at the next state election. Despite a leadership change, this week’s UComms poll suggests Labor’s chances have improved only marginally. Labor’s primary vote has ticked up slightly to 34 points, as did its after-preference vote to 49 per cent. The LNP’s primary support is still around 36 per cent, or 52 per cent after preferences.

That’s a 4.2 per cent swing since the 2020 election, which would see the LNP win nine seats from Labor – four short of what opposition leader David Crisafulli needs to form majority government.

Also expect at least another two Labor seats to go to the Greens.

The only good news for Labor is that, unlike Palaszczuk, more Queenslanders (43 per cent) approve of new premier Steven Miles than disapprove (28 per cent). But Miles still lags Crisafulli as preferred premier, 48 to 52.

Even if Premier Miles can contain the already catastrophic cost-of-living and youth crime crises, he still faces an enormous challenge: show (and not just tell) voters that he’s a genuine, knockabout bloke unafraid to get angry when everyday Queenslanders get shafted by Canberra, by the banks, by anyone.

Will it be enough? It’s too early to tell. But, on today’s polling, the most likely scenario after October is a minority LNP government propped up by Katter’s Australian Party and Pauline Hanson’s One Nation. The next most likely is a Labor minority reliant on Greens support. The next is a narrow LNP majority, with a Labor majority only a distant chance.

Federally, Labor is looking healthier. Despite doomsday predictions following this week’s quarterly demographic Newspoll – yes, Labor is losing among some demographics – the Albanese government would narrowly win an election held tomorrow.

Premier Steven Miles speaks as Prime Minister Anthony Albanese looks on. Picture: Dan Peled/NCA NewsWire

Interestingly, both Labor and the Liberal National Coalition have lifted their primary vote since the 2022 election, with their after-preference vote, at 52 to 48 in Labor’s favour, roughly where they ended up at the last election. Both the Greens and One Nation are also up slightly.

It’s a no-brainer that federal Labor is still weakest in Queensland, but it’s a surprise that female support for Labor is weakening. But women are not flocking to the Coalition. Instead, (especially younger) women are saying Labor is too conservative and moving to the Greens. Labor is still strong among those aged under 35, and tied with the Coalition among the middle-aged. Only among the over-50s does the Coalition race ahead.

Another finding is that Labor polls better than the Coalition across the millions of voters earning between $50,000 and $150,000. Only among the very poor and very rich is the Coalition ahead. That fact alone should alarm Liberals proudly representing Australia’s middle class.

In terms of personal appeal, however, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has a lot of work to do. Albo has a higher disapproval than approval rating in every state, and is minus nine points nationally (it’s worth remembering that Albanese won the last election with an approval score of minus five). Only among the under 35s – and those with university degrees – is Albo “above water”. Albo’s challenge is therefore similar to Miles’s: remind Australians he’s a working-class kid who knows what it’s like to struggle.

Dutton’s approval ratings are even more dire. He’s ahead of Albo only in Queensland, leads only among those aged over 65 years, and trails Albo as preferred prime minister by 11 points. But it’s Dutton’s stubbornly high negative approval of minus 13 nationally – the same level as the deeply unpopular Scott Morrison in 2022 – that will worry the Coalition most.

So, does this mean Albanese will call a late-2024 election? He may well do. With inflation falling from 8 per cent in January this year to 4.9 per cent today – and with economists predicting prices rising by just 3 per cent next year, along with three interest rate cuts – there’s every reason Albo will call a House and half-Senate election soon after the earliest allowable date of August 3.

Some weeks ago I copped flak for predicting in this column the Coalition would lose the next election. I see nothing in this week’s poll to make me change my mind.

Paul Williams is an associate professor at Griffith University

Originally published as Opinion: Why Miles will lose but Albo can still win