UComms poll: Steven Miles’s ascension makes little difference to Labor fortunes

An exclusive poll reveals whether ditching Annastacia Palaszczuk for a “refreshed” Premier Steven Miles has had the desired effect on Labor’s electoral fortunes.

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Ditching Annastacia Palaszczuk for a “refreshed” Premier Steven Miles has made no difference for Labor’s chances at the upcoming state election, an exclusive new poll has revealed.

Opposition Leader David Crisafulli remains the frontrunner as preferred premier among voters, with any hopes of a popularity bounce for the near decade-old Labor government yet to eventuate.

The poll, conducted by UComms for The Courier-Mail last Thursday and Friday, is the first since the explosive Queensland Labor leadership tussle to replace Ms Palaszczuk after she quit on December 10.

Her resignation came six weeks after a YouGov poll for The Courier-Mail in October found Ms Palaszczuk was no longer the preferred premier for the first time in her nine-year tenure.

In the latest polling, the LNP retains its edge over Labor as a whole, with a two-party-preferred vote of 51 per cent to the government’s 49 per cent 10 months ahead of the 2024 election.

It is in line with results from the October YouGov poll showing a 2PP of 52-48.

The Opposition is also still ahead in the primary vote, with the UComms poll showing support for the LNP at 36.2 per cent, compared to an early December Resolve poll result of 37 per cent and the YouGov‘s 41 per cent in October.

Labor’s primary vote in the latest poll is 34.4 per cent, compared to 33 per cent in both the Resolve and YouGov polls.

The first fortnight of the Miles government has seen a “new focus and energy” which starts at the top, according to Deputy Premier Cameron Dick, who over the Christmas weekend praised the new premier for demonstrating “energy and enthusiasm”.

The poll was conducted after Steven Miles replaced Annastacia Palaszczuk as premier.

But the efforts are yet to translate in the polls.

More than half of 1911 Queensland voters polled believed Mr Crisafulli would be the better premier at 52.2 per cent, while 47.8 per cent were in favour of Mr Miles.

The result is more pronounced in the regions where 55.9 per cent think Mr Crisafulli would be a better premier than Mr Miles.

The results also revealed a significant difference in the demographics supporting Mr Miles and Mr Crisafulli.

When asked to choose between the two male leaders, younger Queenslanders aged 18 to 34 overwhelmingly picked Mr Miles – who received 61.1 per cent of the vote.

A whopping 56.6 per cent of women also preferred Mr Miles to Mr Crisafulli.

Insight into voter intentions depending on their age bracket has also revealed “Palaszczuk’s Pensioners”, who delivered Labor a stunning victory in 2020 amid the Covid-19 pandemic, may have abandoned Labor for the LNP.

A significant 47.6 per cent of the cohort aged 65 and older said they would put the LNP first, while 29.5 picked Labor.

The gender split is reflected in the party vote, with 43.7 per cent of men putting the LNP down as their first preference while 34.7 per cent of women handed Labor the first spot on the ballot sheet.

Queensland Labor has for months, in social media campaign ads, targeted the LNP’s track record on women’s reproductive rights.

Mr Dick said the winner of the 2024 election was “ultimately a matter for Queenslanders”.

“They’ll make a decision on how we work together … but next October, it’s a battle for Queensland’s future,” Mr Dick said.