Analysis: YouGov poll results a blow to Labor, but LNP’s campaign failings offer hope

Today’s poll is dire reading for Annastacia Palaszczuk, but considering the LNP’s history of campaign mistakes, there is hope for Labor, writes Hayden Johnson.

A refreshed Annastacia Palaszczuk six weeks ago promised a reset – she told agitated backbenchers and frustrated Queenslanders things would get better.

Yet little has changed to quell the rising internal concerns of the government’s agenda and this poll won’t do any favours.

It is struggling to set a narrative and is left flat footed and confused on issues such as Path to Treaty.

This poll is dire reading for the near nine-year Premier Palaszczuk and is likely to reignite burning questions about whether she really is the right person to go to the election.

With the likelihood of a LNP government and its less friendly union agenda rising, we wonder whether union powerbroker Gary Bullock – who plays a big role in determining the Labor leadership – will blink.

Ms Palaszczuk has two advantages; incumbency and no obvious successor.

Despite this dire poll result the lack of suitable alternative and the difficulty in overthrowing a leader, is probably keeping Ms Palaszczuk in the job.

Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk.

Opposition leader David Crisafulli.

Her refusal to nurture a protégé is now bearing fruit, with the alternative of a three horse-race between Cameron Dick, Shannon Fentiman and Steven Miles a messy spectacle the party want to avoid.

In the wake of this result Ms Palaszczuk and her ministers might repeat the tiring political diatribe that ‘the only poll that matters is the one on election day’.

Don’t believe that for a moment.

This week, within the sandstone walls of the historic parliament precinct ministers and MPs on both sides have been privately sweating on this poll.

They’ve been texting and stopping journalists in hallways, begging for even a “flavour” of the result.

Perhaps their focus on polls proves the point made by Queenslanders in it, that the Palaszczuk government is grinding to a halt – out of ideas.

Had this not been the first four-year term, politicians would be heading to an election.

Instead many are twiddling their thumbs, unsure what they’ll do for the next 11 months before an election campaign begins.

Left up to the cabinet and caucus, Labor’s true believers will stick with Ms Palaszczuk, begrudgingly acknowledging she remains their best, albeit waning, asset.

The Premier has been written off on countless occasions and she will likely take comfort in the chances of a spectacular LNP collapse.

Deputy Opposition leader Jarrod Bleijie.

Deputy Premier Steven Miles.

The Opposition, no matter what polls say, will remain the underdog – and a history of silly campaign mistakes proves it.

In 2017 then-leader Tim Nicholls spent almost the entire campaign ducking and weaving to avoid answering whether he’d do a deal with Pauline Hanson’s One Nation to form government.

Three years later Deb Frecklington misread the mood of the electorate and insisted Queensland’s border should open to New South Wales, all while the LNP’s backroom powerbrokers worked to undermine her.

Mr Crisafulli is more disciplined, but mistakes like holding a press conference with a candidate who said “good stuff” to a video denigrating Indigenous culture, the day after that community was left heartbroken by a dramatic rejection of the Voice – are the kind of mistakes that can throw a campaign off course.

With one year to go, Ms Palaszczuk must pay more than lip service to her pledge for a reset or the leadership rumblings will again turn into a roar.