Majority of Aussie voters want Kamala Harris as president but tip Donald Trump for the win

A slim majority of Australians believe Donald Trump will win the US election despite most preferring Kamala Harris to succeed Joe Biden, as the Albanese government plays down security ramifications.

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese with US Vice-President Kamala Harris last year at the State Department in Washington DC. Picture: Saul Loeb/AFP

A slim majority of Australians ­believe Donald Trump will win the US election despite most preferring Kamala Harris to succeed Joe Biden, as senior Albanese government ministers play down ­negatives for the country if the ­Republican reclaims the White House.

US election eve polling of 1417 Australians, conducted between October 31 and November 4, ­reveals 51 per cent of voters are tipping victory for Mr Trump, narrowly ahead of Ms Harris on 49 per cent.

Asked in an SEC Newgate Mood of the Nation poll who their preferred candidate was, 58 per cent of Australians endorsed Ms Harris, 24 per cent picked Mr Trump and 18 per cent expressed no preference.

Amid rising anxiety in Albanese government ranks over ­potential impacts on Labor policies if Mr Trump wins a second term, Defence Minister Richard Marles and Foreign Affairs Minister Penny Wong talked down any major security ramifications.

Treasury, climate change, ­defence and national security officials have been conducting scenario modelling to prepare for any major pivots in US policy that could impact Australia. Former prime minister Kevin Rudd, installed by Anthony Albanese as Australia’s ambassador to the US, will likely come under pressure if Mr Trump wins after previously making disparaging comments about the Republican.

The Mood of the Nation poll found that “Australians fear a Trump victory would be bad for global peace, climate change and our trade relations with China”.

“Despite presenting himself as a peacemaker, we find that a clear majority of Australians are sceptical of this, with 59 per cent feeling he would have a negative impact on global peace versus 24 per cent positive,” the SEC Newgate ­analysis said.

“Similarly, 56 per cent feel he would have a negative impact on the global response to climate change (vs. 15 per cent positive) and 48 per cent also think he would have a negative impact on Australia’s trade relations with China.

“Preference for a Kamala victory is strongest amongst women, older Australians, Labor and Greens voters. Donald Trump has somewhat greater support amongst men (34 per cent) and Coalition voters (38 per cent).”

Mr Marles on Tuesday said he was confident the AUKUS nuclear submarine pact would not be undermined by a Trump victory.

“When you look at the way in which Democrats, Republicans, Trump Republicans, voted in the congress at the end of last year in support of AUKUS, it was across the political spectrum,” Mr Marles said. “So we do have a sense of confidence that, going forward, this is a program that will be supported in the United States, as it will in the UK, as it will here.”

Speaking alongside India’s External Affairs Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar in Canberra, Senator Wong said “we both see the great importance” in the Quad Security Dialogue.

“It is an arrangement, a meeting, a grouping with countries that share very similar interests in the sort of region we want and having countries of different perspectives, so obviously the US, India, Australia, Japan, it’s a very valuable strategic discussion. We would see that retaining its importance ­regardless of the outcome of the election,” Senator Wong said.

Dr Jaishankar said “we have ­actually seen steady progress in our relationship with the US over the last five presidencies … including an earlier Trump presidency”.

“When we look at the American election … we are very confident that whatever the verdict, our relationship with the United States will only grow. The Quad was revived under a Trump presidency in 2017. It was then moved from the level of a permanent secretary to a minister, also during the Trump presidency,” he said.

Amid speculation of a tight ­result, opposition foreign affairs spokesman Simon Birmingham said “we always urge, whether it’s the US or any other democracy around the world, a peaceful transition”. “We hope to see an election outcome that is respected by all sides, and that does see a peaceful transition of power from President Biden to either a new President Harris or a returned President Trump,” he said.

Speaking in the Coalition joint partyroom meeting on Tuesday, Deputy Opposition Leader Sussan Ley said a Dutton government, if elected, could work with either the Republicans or Democrats.

Additional reporting: Rhiannon Down