The Trump effect instils anxiety in Labor ranks

Republican presidential nominee, former US president Donald Trump, reacts to supporters at the 11th Hour Family Leaders Meeting at the Concord Convention Center in North Caroline this week. Picture: Win McNamee/Getty Images

Anthony Albanese’s signature climate change, economic, trade, foreign and national security policies face being up-ended if Donald Trump wins the November 5 election.

The Prime Minister has tied much of Australia’s investment priorities and approach to international relations with Joe Biden’s view of the world.

Under a second Trump presidency, a prospect that sends shivers down the spines of Labor MPs, the world order would be reshaped. With Trump and Kamala Harris neck-and-neck in the White House race a fortnight from election day, the probability of Albanese and his ambassador Kevin Rudd having to work with a Republican administration is growing.

Jim Chalmers’ visit to Washington DC comes at a critical point. The Treasurer, considered a future Labor leader, will have a unique opportunity to gather intel on the ground while exchanging notes with the world’s top economic minds at a time of great uncertainty.

Chalmers – who will have high-level meetings coinciding with annual G20, IMF and World Bank gatherings – recently revealed Treasury was undertaking scenario modelling to assess potential impacts of a Trump administration on the Australian economy.

Behind the scenes, Australian officials are scrambling to assess what a Trump administration could mean for the Paris Agreement, Israel’s war with Iranian-proxy terror groups, Biden’s clean energy-focused Inflation Reduction Act, AUKUS nuclear submarines, Beijing relations in the event of a US-China trade war, the Quad and broader protectionism amid ongoing Middle East and Ukraine conflicts.

Energy and Climate Change Minister Chris Bowen has flagged Australia’s 2035 emissions-reduction target, which will be informed by Climate Change Authority advice, could be delayed beyond February and potentially until after the next election. The delay is linked to whether Trump wins and overhauls US climate change and energy policy.

In typical Trump fashion, he is keeping his cards close to his chest. Dealing with a Republican-led government compared with the Biden administration would test Albanese’s foreign policy credentials months from a federal election. After replacing Barack Obama, Trump famously lambasted a US-Australia refugee resettlement agreement as a “dumb deal” following a tense 2017 phone call with then prime minister Malcolm Turnbull. It is hard to imagine Rudd – who previously described Trump as “nuts”, a “traitor to the West” and “the most destructive president in history” – would stick around long or be capable of forging a relationship with the 78-year-old as his predecessor Joe Hockey did.

Albanese’s overt wooing of Xi Jinping and Chinese officials, which has stoked concerns inside the Biden administration, will likely come under pressure if Trump returns. With Trump making clear he is focused on strengthening domestic security, how committed will he be to Biden’s Indo-Pacific shift and countering China’s regional influence in the South Pacific?