Trump-Harris outcome will shape future for us all

The end game is rapidly approaching in the US presidential election and, whatever the outcome, it will have profound implications for Australia and global affairs. It is fair to say the Kamala Harris honeymoon is over but she is not yet out of the race. Donald Trump has the momentum running his way in the final two weeks but he is not assured of victory in what remains a tight contest between uninspiring contestants.

Campaigning has descended into partisan character assessments, a contest in which Mr Trump has the heavier load to carry thanks to public interventions by competent people who have worked alongside him in the past. The latest is General Mark Milley, chairman of the joint chiefs of staff under Mr Trump, who is reported in a new book by Bob Woodward, the veteran Watergate reporter, as having said Mr Trump is a “fascist to the core” and “the most dangerous person to this country”. Another general, John Kelly, hand-picked by Mr Trump to be his White House chief of staff, gave interviews to The Atlantic and The New York Times in which he echoed General Milley’s views about Mr Trump’s character and actually claimed to have heard him say admiring things about Hitler. Ms Harris is now running hard on the message that Mr Trump is a fascist who poses a danger if allowed to rule unchecked, given a recent Supreme Court ruling that a president can act with impunity when exercising their powers.

The Democratic line of attack belies the fact Ms Harris has little to offer voters by way of legacy. But once again, the Democrats are getting a free pass from a partisan press more interested in tearing down Mr Trump than pointing out the contradictions and failings of his opponent. American voters will choose who they want to be the next president, as they should. But their decision will have consequences that will resonate on a global scale. As chief political correspondent Geoff Chambers wrote this week, Australian officials are scrambling to assess what a Trump administration could mean for the Paris Agreement, Israel’s war with Iran’s proxy terror groups, Joe Biden’s clean energy-focused Inflation Reduction Act, AUKUS nuclear submarines, Beijing relations in the event of a US-China trade war, the Quad, and broader protectionism amid ongoing Middle East and Ukraine conflicts. Energy and Climate Change Minister Chris Bowen has flagged Australia’s 2035 emissions reduction target, which will be informed by Climate Change Authority advice, could be delayed beyond February, and potentially until after the next election. The delay is linked to whether Mr Trump wins and overhauls US climate change policy.

Alternatively, as Adam Creighton reports from Washington, a big-spending Harris administration intent on re-regulating the US economy could be worse for Australia than Mr Trump, if congress prevents the former president from following through on his more extreme tariff proposals. Top economists and former Australian ambassador to the US Arthur Sinodinos have warned Ms Harris’s plans to hike taxes, expand Mr Biden’s green energy policies and boost social welfare programs will have consequences for the global economy, especially if she gets control of both the House of Representatives and the Senate. The Harris campaign has promised trillions of dollars of new spending over a decade on childcare, first-home buyer grants, industry subsidies, paid family leave, and aged-care support, partly paid for by increasing the company tax rate from 21 to 28 per cent.

Australian officials will have no influence over who will become the next US president. They must be ready for any outcome and focus on getting the basics right on the domestic economy. On this there is a lot of work that needs to be done.