Donald Trump in lead on key issues with race on knife edge

Kamala Harris leads Donald Trump by two per cent two weeks ahead of the election; at this stage in 2020 Biden was ahead by 11 points and in 2016 Clinton led by four points.

Kamala Harris is leading Donald Trump by just two per cent. Picture: AFP.

Kamala Harris leads Donald Trump by a narrow margin but he remains ahead on the main issues with two weeks to US election day, according to polling for The Times.

Harris is the choice for president of 47 per cent of voters nationally, up 1 point from September, while Trump is unchanged on 45 per cent, the poll by YouGov shows. Of the remainder, 5 per cent of Americans are not sure who to vote for and 3 per cent back minor candidates.

Despite her national lead, which increases to 3 points when only likely voters are included, the race remains too close to call because it is not decided by a simple national majority of all voters but by the electoral college of the 50 states. States have a weighted vote according to size.

At this stage in October 2016 Hillary Clinton was put 4 points ahead of Trump, according to YouGov. Trump won despite losing the popular vote by 2.1 percentage points.

At this stage in 2020, YouGov polling put Biden 11 points ahead of Trump by 51 to 40 per cent nationally. Biden won the White House with a margin of 4.5 points in the national vote.

Harris, 60, has shown some momentum by gaining a few points on Trump, 78, on key issues since she entered the race, but the former president still leads by 6 points on who is trusted to handle the economy (down from 9), by 10 points on immigration (down from 12), by 6 points on crime (down from 9) and by 7 points on foreign policy (unchanged).

Harris leads by 17 points on handling the issue of abortion (up from 14), 19 points on environment (up from 14) and 4 points on appointments to the Supreme Court (up from 2).

Voters see Harris as presidential in other ways – when asked about confidence in the candidates’ ability to control America’s nuclear deterrent, 47 per cent were confident in Harris and 43 per cent uneasy, while 43 per cent were confident in Trump and 51 per cent uneasy.

In October 2020 Biden was regarded as better for the economy by 43 per cent and Trump by 42 per cent in YouGov polling.

Shortly before the 2020 election, YouGov found Biden was ahead of Trump on immigration policy by 48 to 43 per cent and ahead on foreign policy by 48 to 41 per cent.

“The problem for Harris is that she’s probably the underdog if she wins by 2 points because of the electoral college,” said Carl Bialik, vice-president of data science and US politics editor at YouGov.

“The way the polling is looking, Harris has been running ahead [nationally] of the battleground states – if she beats Trump nationally in the popular vote by 2 points, that might not be enough to win those states,” he said.

Perceptions of Harris appear to have sharpened as she becomes better known, YouGov said, and there are signs some of her attacks on Trump are hitting home. On a list of words that could describe each candidate, the biggest increases for Harris since July were “patriotic” (up 9 points, from 28 to 37 per cent), “generous” (up 6, from 20 to 26 per cent) and “cautious” (up 5 from 19 to 24 per cent).

The main changes in words used to describe Trump were “confused” (up 6, from 33 to 39 per cent) and “weak” (up 5, from 27 to 32 per cent).

Just under half of voters (45 per cent) said Trump was too old to be president, the same as in July.

While the economy and immigration were the issues that most concerned voters, abortion was among the top topics for female voters, and the YouGov polling suggests Trump is failing to limit the damage to his campaign caused by the Supreme Court ruling in 2022 to end a federal right of access.

He insists that bans and tough restrictions in some Republican states will be softened and has falsely asserted that “all legal scholars” wanted to overturn the Roe v Wade ruling of 1973 that guaranteed access nationwide. Harris has increased her lead on the issue since September from 14 to 17 points.

Both Harris and Trump have increased their favourability ratings: hers is up 2 points to 44 per cent and his is up a single point to 43 per cent. Both remain “under water”, however, because her unfavourability is 51 per cent (up 1) and his is 52 per cent (unchanged).

Harris continues to hold an enthusiasm advantage with her party’s supporters, as also seen last month: 61 per cent of Harris voters said they were “more enthusiastic than usual about voting”, compared with 53 per cent of Trump voters. This could prove vital in a close election, which could hinge on whether the parties can persuade their natural supporters to turn out.

Asked if Trump poses a “serious risk to democracy”, 39 per cent of Americans said “definitely” (74 per cent of Democrats and 5 per cent of Republicans); 35 per cent said “definitely not” (3 per cent of Democrats and 72 per cent of Republicans).

Voters were split three ways on military aid to Ukraine, with 24 per cent saying assistance should be increased (38 per cent of Democrats and 10 per cent of Republicans), while 34 per cent wanted to decrease it (15 per cent of Democrats and 51 per cent of Republicans) and 27 per cent wanted to keep it the same (33 per cent of Democrats and 23 per cent of Republicans).

On Israel 21 per cent were keen to increase military aid, 35 per cent were in favour of decreasing it and 30 per cent wanted to keep it the same. While 39 per cent saw Trump as wanting to support Israel in relation to the conflict in Gaza no matter what, just 10 per cent said the same of Harris. The TV debate between their running mates appears to have helped both of them moderate their image with the crucial undecided, unaffiliated voter. Since September fewer say that Harris’s running mate, Tim Walz, is very liberal (36 per cent, down from 43) and fewer see Trump’s vice-presidential candidate, JD Vance, as very conservative (35 per cent, down from 47).

The Times