Voters dislike Tories ‘even more than they did Corbyn in 2019’

The latest polling shows the mountain Rishi Sunak has to climb if he is to turn around voter sentiment in just over five weeks.

Rishi Sunak faces a poll rout in the vein of Labour in 2019 under Jeremy Corbyn.

The thought of the Conservatives staying in power is less appealing to voters than the prospect of Jeremy Corbyn entering Downing Street was five years ago, polling suggests.

In a repeat of research carried out in 2019, YouGov asked voters to imagine the result of the election was an overall majority for Rishi Sunak and his Tories.

It found 59 per cent voters would be either “dismayed” or “disappointed” if the Tories were still in power after July 4 while 15 per cent said they would be “delighted” or “pleased”.

A further 15 per cent said they wouldn’t mind while 11 per cent didn’t know.

In the 2019 election, in which Boris Johnson won a landslide victory against Corbyn, 52 per cent said they would be “dismayed” or “disappointed” if the Labour leader won.

Some 28 per cent said they would be “delighted” or “pleased” while 9 per cent said they wouldn’t mind Corbyn in No 10.

The result shows the mountain Sunak has to climb if he is to turn around voter sentiment in little more than five weeks before the general election.

The YouGov survey found 38 per cent of those who voted for the Tories five years ago would be happy to see them re-elected. Even among those who said they intended to stick with the party, only 29 per cent said they would be delighted by a Sunak victory.

The polling also shows Sir Keir Starmer has still to raise enthusiasm among voters. The survey found 34 per cent of voters would be “delighted” or “pleased” with a Labour victory – a figure only six points higher than for Corbyn in 2019.

Opposition is much lower than it was to Corbyn, however. Only 35 per cent said they would be “dismayed’ or “disappointed” if Starmer ended up in Downing Street compared with 52 per cent who said the same about Corbyn.

Some 17 per cent said they “wouldn’t mind” a Labour victory. Matthew Smith, a data head at YouGov, said the polling showed the challenge facing Sunak. “A core principle for any politician is to not upset the general public,” he said. “But what about when keeping your job is what will upset them?”

Peter Kellner, a former YouGov president, said the Tories’ difficulties were compounded by the type of tactical voting observed in the 1997 election, which Labour won by a landslide.

“In 1997 many LibDem supporters in Conservative-Labour marginals backed Tony Blair,” he said.

“Many Labour supporters backed Paddy Ashdown’s Lib Dems in his target seats. Labour would have won a big victory anyway but analysis of voting patterns suggests that tactical voting gave Labour an extra 20 seats and the LibDems ten.

“The latest signs are that tactical voting is back. By-elections and this month’s local elections confirm that many anti-Tory voters are happy to support whichever party is best able to beat the Tories locally.”

Kellner said this could threaten seats held by senior Tories, including Jeremy Hunt, the chancellor of the exchequer, and Sir Jacob Rees-Mogg.

Pollsters believe the gap between the two main parties is likely to narrow over the campaign but there is little sign that has happened so far.

Sir John Curtice, professor of politics at Strathclyde University, said: “If you take the average of the five polls done since Wednesday the Labour lead is unchanged. But of course no change is not what the Conservatives want.”

The polling does show that many voters have yet to make up their minds on who to support and are still open to persuasion.

YouGov polling carried out after Sunak’s election announcement shows that only 43 per cent of voters have “definitely” made up their minds on how to vote.

A further 25 per cent said it was possible or likely that they would change their minds before polling day.

The Times