Sunak jumps at remote chance

British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak ’s calling a snap general election for July 4, when his Conservatives are 25 per cent behind Labour in the polls, is an act of political bravery. No governing UK party in recent history has overcome such a large deficit at the start of a campaign. Even many Tories have written off the party’s chances of achieving a fifth successive victory after 14 years in power.

After the scandals and disruptions that dogged Boris Johnson’s chaotic government and Liz Truss’s ill-fated interlude, Mr Sunak entered 10 Downing Street in October 2022 with a terrible set of cards. As much as this embattled government has any chance to start campaigning on something like the front foot, it came with this week’s announcement that inflation, which has bedevilled his tenure, had fallen to 2.3 per cent, close to the Bank of England’s 2 per cent target. The result reflects Mr Sunak’s sound management and Conservative orthodoxy that he believes could turn the polls around. It is not just on Britain’s economic recovery that Mr Sunak – “an honest, principled and diligent man”, according to The Times – hopes to turn the election into a real contest against Labour’s Keir Starmer. Pundits credit Sir Keir with “the instincts of an (London borough of) Islington human rights lawyer”.

Mr Sunak faces a mammoth task. On Brexit, the issue pivotal in Mr Johnson’s big victory in 2019, there is disenchantment. Many of the promised gains from leaving the EU have not materialised. A poll of polls by What Britain Thinks shows 58 per cent are so fed up they want the UK to rejoin the EU. Claims that Brexit would lead to a cut in immigration proved a furphy. Illegal immigration reached new highs in 2022, before falling back last year.

Despite his dismal position, Mr Sunak has a good record. His dealing with illegal immigrants, by despatching them to Rwanda, has been crucial. It is likely to shore up inroads made on the Tory voting base by the populist right-wing Reform party of Nigel Farage. Mr Sunak has supported Ukraine’s fight against Vladimir Putin and is standing by Israel over Gaza. Despite a large Muslim minority, he has been consistent in defending Britain’s Jewish communities.

Sir Keir has brought Labour back from the Marxist lunacy and anti-Semitism that devastated it under Jeremy Corbyn. But shadow foreign minister David Lammy is backing the International Criminal Court’s moves to indict Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defence Minister Yoav Gallant over alleged war crimes. Labour also remains divided over private schools, which reflects class envy, and complacency over military spending amid global danger. Such concerns offer Mr Sunak a remote chance of defying the polls.