Rishi Sunak tells critics: This is our bounce-back year

‘Don’t mess with Rishi’ the UK prime minister’s allies warn, saying he would sooner call a general election than be ousted.

Rishi Sunak is hoping the improving economic outlook will help to close the gap with Labour in the polls, even as some right-wing Tory MPs believe he could be replaced by Penny Mordaunt. Picture: PA/The Times

Rishi Sunak has said that this will be the year Britain “bounces back” as his allies warned that he would sooner call a general election than be forced out of office.

The British prime minister said there was a “real sense that the economy is turning a corner” as he mounted a fightback in the face of growing discontent in the cabinet and on the Tory back benches.

Official figures are expected to show this week that inflation has fallen further and there are hopes in government that the Bank of England will soon begin cutting interest rates.

Ministers are also hopeful that the government’s Rwanda legislation will become law this week, although The Times has been told that the first flights are unlikely to take off until mid-May at the earliest.

Sunak hopes that the combination of the improving economic outlook and the Rwanda migration scheme can help close the gap with Labour in the polls.

A senior ally of the prime minister said that Sunak’s critics underestimated his resolve. They said he would be prepared to call a general election if rebels forced a leadership contest.

“He’s increasingly determined to prove his point and establish his own mandate,” the ally said. “You don’t get to achieve the things he’s done without some steel. He’s not just going to roll over.

“People should be careful what they wish for. If they don’t want an election they should stop messing about. Rishi could easily say ‘OK, if that’s the mood of the party I don’t think it’s fair to put it to another leadership contest’. He can say reasonably he might just go to the Palace instead.”

Sunak said he hoped to see “more progress” on inflation this week as he struck an upbeat tone on the economy.

“The last few years have been tough for the British economy as we have faced a series of shocks: Covid, then war in Ukraine and the Middle East,” he said. “That’s why we’ve been so focused on our economic priorities: halving inflation, growing the economy and reducing debt.

“And there is now a real sense that the economy is turning a corner with all the economic indicators pointing in the right direction. This year, 2024, will be the year Britain bounces back.

“Inflation has more than halved, with the [Office for Budget Responsibility] forecasting it will hit its 2 per cent target in just a few months’ time - a full year ahead of what they were forecasting just a few months ago.”

Some right-wing Tory MPs are promoting Penny Mordaunt as an alternative to Rishi Sunak. Picture: Getty Images

Cabinet ministers are increasingly concerned about the failure of the Tories to make inroads into Labour’s lead in the polls. One minister said they were increasingly of the view that Sunak was not the right prime minister to lead the party into the general election. However, another said it would be “bonkers” for the Tories to move against Sunak and appoint their fourth prime minister since 2019.

Some right-wing Tory MPs are of the view that Penny Mordaunt, the leader of the Commons and a centrist, could replace Sunak. This claim has been categorically rejected by her allies, who believe she is being “stitched up” as part of a “pre-emptive strike” by those on the right of the party.

Concerns were raised about Sunak’s leadership last week after the budget failed to deliver a bounce in the polls and Lee Anderson, the party’s former deputy chairman, defected to Reform. The Tories were also embroiled in a racism row involving their biggest donor.

Yesterday (Sunday) Mark Harper, the transport secretary, urged colleagues to have “confidence” in Sunak’s leadership and said he was making the “right decisions” for the country. Asked if Sunak would still be leader at the election, Harper told Sky News: “Yes he will. He will take us into that election and he will set out very clearly that we’re a government with a plan. I’m going to be supporting him all the way through, and I’m confident that my colleagues will.”

Sunak said the improving economic picture would mean people had more disposable income. “Because inflation has fallen, that means people’s pay packets are going further, with figures released last week showing real wages growing for the seventh month in a row,” he said. “All this is good news for growth.”

Sunak said that the International Monetary Fund was now forecasting that the UK would grow faster than Japan, Germany, France, and Italy cumulatively over the next five years. However, he added: “While the economy has turned a corner, we are not out of the woods yet, and we know things remain tough for people.”

Sunak said Britain needed to “stick to the plan”, highlighting the 4p cut in national insurance across the autumn statement and spring budget. He also reiterated his long-term pledge to abolish national insurance, describing it as a “double tax on work”.

The Times