Doubt, surprise, sarcasm: Inside Rishi Sunak’s cabinet meeting where decision was made

Rishi Sunak’s decision to go to the polls early took most of his ministers by surprise – even their cabinet meeting had a fake agenda. His announcement was not universally welcomed.

Rishi Sunak is congratulated by his wife, Akshata Murty, after launching the Conservative Party general election campaign in London. Picture: Getty Images

Rishi Sunak opened the cabinet meeting on Wednesday afternoon local time by setting aside the formal agenda. “I don’t think anyone will mind,” he said as he told colleagues he was calling a general election on July 4.

The economic outlook, he said, was improving and it was time to be bold. “We have got to own the choice and frame the choice,” he said.

The prime minister’s decision to go early was not universally welcomed. Chris Heaton-Harris, the Northern Ireland secretary, said he would not have gone early but added he was “100 per cent” behind Sunak.

In fact, the prime minister made his decision nearly a month ago, shortly before the local election results were announced. The plan had been to hold off until the autumn, by which time people would feel better off as inflation fell and interest rates were cut. It soon became apparent, however, that the economic recovery was slower than hoped, and that even then people were unwilling to give the Tories credit.

Sunak became concerned that the longer he waited, the more he would be susceptible to accusations that he was “clinging on”. The narrative that the Tories deployed successfully against Gordon Brown – that he was squatting in No 10 – would be deployed against Sunak. By going early, the thinking was, Sunak could seize the agenda.

The decision was not without debate. But Liam Booth-Smith, Sunak’s chief of staff, and James Forsyth, his political secretary, backed his judgment.

“We had broadly made the decision to go but waited for the outcome of the locals [elections],” one senior Downing Street source said. “When Houchen won, that was it.”

Another source said: “The prime minister was worried that once we got past the summer, everything would be dominated by when the election was going to be called and it would look like he was clinging on. This way he can seize the agenda and set out a case for why people should trust him with five more years.”

Last week the prime minister and his closest allies, including Oliver Dowden, the deputy prime minister, Booth-Smith, Forsyth and Nerissa Chesterfield, his director of communications, met in his study and gave the green light to the decision. Making the announcement on Wednesday local time, the day inflation was expected to fall to close to 2 per cent, would enable Sunak to capitalise on better economic news.

One of the other factors that influenced Sunak’s decision was a belief that the economic picture was unlikely to be substantially better in the autumn.

No 10 is hoping that the Bank of England will announce its first cut in interest rates during the campaign and that next month’s figures will show inflation has fallen to the government’s 2 per cent target. On the flip side, sources said that Sunak thought another tax cut in the autumn could be seen as cynical.

The other issue was Rwanda. A source said that although they were hopeful that the first flight would take off before polling day, there was a risk the policy might not show an immediate effect on small boat crossings. “If you got to the autumn and the number of illegal crossing had not gone down, that would be a problem,” they said.

Sunak’s decision took most of his ministers by surprise. They were told that attending cabinet at 4.15pm was compulsory. Lord Cameron of Chipping Norton, the foreign secretary, had just arrived in Albania when he was recalled. Grant Shapps, the defence secretary, delayed a trip to eastern Europe.

No 10 attempted to throw off ministers with a faux agenda for the meeting. For several hours it appeared to work. As rumours circulated one senior minister dismissed them as “bollocks”.

The telling moment came at prime minister’s questions, when Sunak was asked if there were going to be a summer election and laughed knowingly. “It was pretty clear it was happening,” a minister said.

Part of the reasoning for going early, one senior Tory said, is that voters were not listening. Sunak has made big announcements in recent weeks – a commitment to spend 2.5 per cent of national income on defence, welfare reform, gender guidance for schools – yet Labour has extended its lead.

Sunak is attempting to pull off a turnaround that would be unique in modern political history. He had no choice but to take a risk.

The Times