Three things Starmer will say to Trump – and two he won’t

It may prove to be one of the most significant meetings between a British prime minister and an American president since the end of World War II.

US President Donald Trump and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer. Pictures: Pool/AFP, WPA Pool/Getty Images

When Sir Keir Starmer sits down with Donald Trump in the Oval Office on Thursday it may prove to be one of the most significant meetings between a British prime minister and an American president since the end of World War II. From the threat of US tariffs to America’s role in guaranteeing European security in Ukraine and beyond, the prime minister will attempt to walk the tightrope between protecting Britain’s interests and avoiding an outright confrontation.

Ukraine

Starmer’s overarching mission in Washington is to recalibrate Trump’s approach to ending the war in Ukraine.

Senior diplomats have been told by their US counterparts that despite the Putin-Trump call and talks in Saudi Arabia there is still no American blueprint for what a peace deal might look like. Trump himself is said to simply want a deal and has no specific red lines.

British Prime Minster Keir Starmer at a reception on the third anniversary of Russia's invasion of Ukraine in London on February 24. Picture: WPA Pool/Getty Images

Starmer will attempt to influence the US president in three main areas. The first is to persuade him that no sustainable deal can be negotiated between the US and Russia, then imposed upon Ukraine under the threat of withdrawing American support. Starmer will argue that excluding Ukraine from talks would signal to Vladimir Putin that the West (including America) is weak.

The second argument is that while Europe can and should provide the bulk of peacekeeping forces to reassure Ukraine against future attack, this can only be credible if they are backed up by American security guarantees. In blunt terms this would commit the US to protecting the peacekeepers if they came under attack. Britain believes that any peacekeeping force would need logistical support from American personnel who are already in Europe.

The final argument is a broader one. Starmer will attempt to argue that Putin’s position is far weaker than it looks and that Trump should be prepared to play the long game, increasing economic and military pressure on Russia still further to get, as Trump might put it, a “great deal”. He will make the point that if the US is seen to be too keen to do a deal quickly, Putin is less likely to compromise – and as a consequence any such agreement is less likely to deliver the enduring peace that would otherwise be Trump’s legacy.

Defence spending

Trump is clear that he wants Britain and other European nations to significantly increase their spending on defence. During the US election he argued that it should be 5 per cent of GDP. The message is that Europe must pay for its own defence and can no longer rely on American support.

US President Donald Trump meets with French President Emmanuel Macron in the Oval Office on February 24. Picture: AFP

His interventions make the British debate about defence spending look almost academic. Starmer is committed to increasing defence spending from 2.3 per cent of GDP to 2.5 per cent but has not said by when. There is an increasing consensus that it will have to be hit by 2030 and that he will need to go further. Defence chiefs have personally pressed Starmer to increase spending to 2.65 per cent. Britain’s public finances are already strained. Hitting 2.5 per cent would cost an extra £5bn a year, meaning that there will need to be spending cuts elsewhere or tax rises. There have been reports that Starmer will set out the timeframe for the rise in defence spending during his meeting with Trump, but he is now expected to await the outcome of the strategic defence review and the spending review. Pressure will only grow.

Trade and tariffs

While Ukraine is likely to be the main agenda item in the Oval Office, tariffs could present an even bigger issue for Starmer’s political future. Trump has said that he is prepared to impose “reciprocal” tariffs on other nations, singling out those which impose VAT such as Britain. The impact could be huge, leading to tariffs of up to 21 per cent on exports to the US.

America is Britain’s largest single trading partner, so tariffs could have a big impact on growth. Trump has been clear that he feels that there is a trade imbalance, something disputed by the UK, but he has suggested that a deal could be struck. The terms of such a deal could be difficult. The UK wants to focus on technology and digital services – Lord Mandelson, the new US ambassador, has framed it as a “Mega” deal to “make our economies great again” – but Trump is likely to push Starmer on less palatable areas, such as US agricultural exports and NHS caps on drug prices. Starmer will draw the line between defence spending and tariffs, arguing that tariffs will make it more difficult to bolster the military. A win for Starmer would be to walk away with some form of carve-out from Trump’s tariff agenda.

Don’t poke the bear

The prime minister has gone out of his way to avoid provocation, using his engagements with Trump to talk about their families and praise him at every opportunity. Starmer will come with an offer of a full state visit to the UK, this time including addressing both parliaments, and Trump has respect and fondness for the royal family.

Donald Trump meets with Prince William in Paris in December. Picture: Pool/AFP

During a call with Starmer he spoke about his admiration of the Prince of Wales, whom he met in Paris in December. Given what is at stake, some conflict is inevitable, but Starmer has so far avoided going directly for Trump. The hope is that treating him with respect will pay dividends in the long run.

Free Speech

One area that Starmer will need to prepare for is a potential confrontation over free speech. JD Vance’s extraordinary address at the Munich Security Conference this month, in which he claimed that free speech was in retreat across the EU and in Britain in particular, highlights the scale of concern among Trump’s most senior allies. Given the influence of Elon Musk, who is trying depict Britain as a police state, Trump may choose to confront Starmer over the UK’s plans to regulate social media companies. The prime minister is unlikely to bring it up himself.

The Times