Yet over the past decade or so, America and its allies have been perceived as weak. As a result, China, Russia and Iran have shown no fear of the West, exploited its hesitancy and its weakness, and created havoc in Ukraine, the Middle East and the South China Sea. Turning around that failure of Western policy is going to be a huge challenge.
So let’s take Ukraine. We need to admit it: the West ceded Crimea to Russia in 2014. By February 2022, Russia had seized about 10 per cent of Ukraine.
Some sanctions were imposed on Russia but Germany continued to import vast quantities of gas via Nord Stream 1 and continued building Nord Stream 2. In February of that year, Russia launched its all-out invasion of Ukraine. Three years later Russia controls about 17-18 per cent of Ukraine. Perhaps half a million people have been killed in that time.
It’s laudable that the West – especially America – supplied arms to Ukraine but less laudable is the insufficient supply of weaponry to stop the invasion: the West feared that if it gave Ukraine what it needed to win back the Donbas and Crimea it would “escalate” the conflict.
That’s where we were when President Donald Trump arrived. He wanted to end the slaughter. He had two choices. Either launch a huge attack on Russian troops in Ukraine, driving them out of the country altogether, or negotiate a ceasefire with the Russians and leave the Ukrainians and the Europeans to negotiate a peace treaty.
America also has to deal with Iran and China. In the ceasefire talks in Saudi Arabia, I’ve heard but cannot verify, the Americans have linked the ceasefire to Russian agreement not to supply Iran with S400 anti-aircraft missile systems.
What about the Europeans? Well, Trump was apparently shown a map of Europe recently that identified which countries made the most energetic contribution to the defence of the continent.
Poland and the Baltic republics were identified, and no one else. Trump then asked how big was the GDP of Germany, Britain and France. When told these countries were, in order, the fourth-, fifth- and sixth-biggest economies in the world, Trump understandably wondered why the Europeans were so incapable of defending their own continent and why they were so dependent on America. After all, Germany’s GDP alone is more than double Russia’s.
His perspective is that America is in an existential tussle with China, that Russia is a relatively small threat by comparison, and rich Europe should easily be able to take the lead in handling Russia – with back-up from America.
America should be fixing the Middle East and deterring Chinese aggression. Trump is right. In the 1950s and ’60s, when Europe was just recovering from the devastation of World War II and Germany was divided, America had to provide for Western Europe’s security.
But since the end of the Cold War and the creation of a more united Europe, Europe could have made a much bigger contribution to regional defence, not just depended on America.
Instead, European nations have been spending their wealth on an ever-growing welfare system and, more recently, on eye-wateringly expensive climate change policies.
Trump is brutally telling the Europeans to lift their game and make a bigger contribution to their own security rather than being so dependent on American taxpayers’ goodwill. His language may be a little harsh but the messages make sense.
There’s another European issue that clearly annoys the Americans. That is the future of the huge British-owned but American-run base in the middle of the Indian Ocean called Diego Garcia. This is located on a chain of islands called the Chagos Islands. It is strategically critical as part of the American-led Western efforts to balance growing Chinese power and deter Chinese adventurism.
That is particularly important in the Indian Ocean. Diego Garcia gives the Americans massively enhanced capacity to project power into our Indo-Pacific region.
The Chagos Islands are part of the British Indian Ocean Territories. Their British sovereignty makes the base secure for the Americans. However, China-loving Mauritius – which is 2400km from the Chagos – has been running a long campaign to try to claim sovereignty over the islands for itself.
It persuaded the United Nations General Assembly to refer the dispute to the International Court of Justice for an advisory opinion. No surprises there. The court ruled in favour of Mauritius. After all, one of the judges in the case was a former director-general in the Chinese Foreign Ministry and another a former director-general in the Russian Foreign Ministry!
Still, this was just an advisory opinion and the British government has understandably decided not to take this advice. Security issues were at stake and they were far more important than just trying to placate the internal politics of Mauritius.
Then along comes the new Labour government in Britain and it has decided it wants to surrender sovereignty over the islands to Mauritius and lease back Diego Garcia.
The new British government is giving priority to appeasing Mauritius over the critically important geostrategic priority of balancing and deterring Chinese power.
The British claim that under the terms of the lease back from Mauritius they will be able to keep the base for 99 years. But Mauritius has a special relationship with China. Imagine if a war broke out between the US and China over, say, Taiwan. Under intense pressure from China, Mauritius would try to stop the Americans using Diego Garcia in a conflict of that kind.
So it’s little wonder Trump has started lashing out against the Europeans. They’re happy for American taxpayers and servicemen and women to underwrite European security but for all their wealth they are quick to condemn the Americans for Trump’s rather outlandish language, but their contribution to security is minimal.
Trump is giving priority to deterring China and will want to strengthen America’s alliances with Japan, South Korea and The Philippines. He will also want to make sure ANZUS is in good shape.
So just because Trump’s language drives the European status quo mad doesn’t mean the end of the Western alliance. It’s about reassessing priorities and reallocating burden-sharing. Trump will be good for our security in the Indo-Pacific region. And he might get the rich Europeans to think more about contributing to the defence of Europe rather than just depending on America.
Alexander Downer was foreign minister from 1996 to 2007 and high commissioner to the UK from 2014 to 2018. He is chairman of British think tank Policy Exchange.
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