The dilemma for Israel about how it conducts its looming ground war in Gaza has become acute. With a growing humanitarian crisis in Gaza, and the certainty of many more civilian deaths in the ground offensive, calls are growing for it to temper the scale of its offensive against Hamas to avoid more mass civilian casualties. These arguments are not just based on the obvious morality of protecting civilian lives in war, they also extend to Israel’s self-interest and long-term security as well.
The Biden administration is reportedly worried that Israel’s attack plans in Gaza lack achievable military objectives right now and could come at a great cost to civilian lives.
Former US president Barack Obama is the latest prominent voice to urge Israel to act with caution while still supporting its right to carry out its campaign to destroy Hamas inside Gaza.
“Any Israeli military strategy that ignores the human cost could ultimately backfire,” Obama says.
Any worsening of the humanitarian crisis inside Gaza “could further harden Palestinian attitudes for generations, erode global support for Israel, play into the hands of Israel’s enemies and undermine long-term efforts to achieve peace and stability in the region.”
Obama calls on Israel’s supporters to “encourage a strategy that can incapacitate Hamas while minimising further civilian casualties”.
But is it even possible to destroy Hamas without also incurring huge civilian casualties in the urban jungle that will be the battlefield in Gaza?
Unlike the murderous Hamas, which deliberately killed 1400 Israelis, Israel will seek to minimise civilian casualties rather than target civilians.
But how much care will Benjamin Netanyahu take when he has pledged to do whatever it takes to destroy Hamas?
Netanyahu is backed by Israeli military leaders who, as a US official told New York Times columnist Thomas Friedman, are “red with rage and determined to deliver a blow to Hamas that the whole neighbourhood will never forget”.
The dilemma for Israel is that it wants to achieve two aims – the destruction of Hamas and the protection of civilian lives – which look to be fundamentally incompatible.
Netanyahu has vowed not only to destroy Hamas but to ensure it can never threaten Israelis in their homeland again.
That sentiment is entirely understandable and Israel would be doing the world a favour to eliminate Hamas as a force for evil.
But how will this be done?
It does not appear that Israel is planning to target Hamas merely with surgical strikes and special forces operations. Rather, it appears to be preparing for a major ground offensive that cannot help but end up killing numerous civilians in addition to Hamas terrorists.
Israel’s broad bombardment of Gaza over the past two weeks was said to be directed at Hamas targets and yet it appears that more than 4000 civilians have died. This tragic outcome shows how difficult, if not impossible, it is to protect civilians in a conflict zone that is half the size of Canberra.
The danger for Israel is that if it overplays its hand in Gaza, it risks several outcomes that will undermine its long-term security.
The first is it could easily provoke a broader war by giving an incentive for the Iranian-backed Hezbollah to attack Israel from the north, or provoke a third intifada against Israel in the West Bank.
The second is that it will make any progress towards peace in the region – however distant that may now look – even less achievable in the future.
The large-scale loss of civilian lives will only feed intergenerational hatred of Israel in Gaza and in the Arab world and will deliver a new generation of militants from the children who witness it.
And while Israel’s bombing of Gaza over the past two weeks has cost it international support, Israel’s allies, including Australia, have been steadfast in support of its aim of destroying Hamas.
This support will have its limits. If there is a horrific civilian death toll in this coming offensive, Israel risks becoming a pariah in the international community.
Israel, the region’s only democracy, needs the support of its friends and allies to ensure its survival in a hostile world and it cannot afford to alienate its friends as well as its enemies.
These are the fearful calculations that Israel must make as it gauges the manner in which it tries to destroy Hamas.
The Biden administration has rightly been fully supportive of Israel’s right to destroy the terror group, but it has also encouraged Israel to go slow in its response and take a breath before entering Gaza.
Biden has succeeded in persuading Israel to delay its planned offensive in order to maximise the chances of releasing hostages, to help it get more US military assets into the region and to get more humanitarian aid into Gaza.
As Biden said to Israel during his visit there, “while you feel that rage, don’t be consumed by it”. Let’s hope those words ring true.
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