Hamas-Israel war could escalate

Smoke ascends over the northern Gaza Strip on Monday. Picture: AFP

Iran’s ayatollahs should not ignore the significance of US Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin’s ordering the activation of the US’s powerful THAAD (Terminal High Altitude Area Defence) and Patriot missile shields across the Middle East. Amid increasingly hostile threats from Tehran at the start of the third week of Israel’s war with Iran’s Hamas terrorist proxy, General Austin’s move has put some of the most powerful resources in the US military machine on a war footing.

Doing so underlines the potential for a much graver crisis. At the weekend, senior Israeli government minister Nir Barkat warned Israel will cut off “the head of the snake’’ and launch a military attack on Iran if Hezbollah joins the onslaught against the Jewish state. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said the war against Gaza terrorists was a “do or die” moment.

The US’s activation of missile defences should show the ayatollahs’ regime the retaliation it is inviting by making direct threats. At the weekend, Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian warned “the US and its proxy, Israel, that if they do not immediately stop the crime against humanity and genocide in Gaza the region will go out of control”. The head of Iran’s 500,000-strong army, Major General Abdolrahim Mousavi, boasted to The Tehran Times that the October 7 attack by Hamas terrorists had “put Israel in a state of confusion and insanity”, ensuring that “the Zionist regime will collapse and fall at the hands of the Palestinian fighters”.

Cross-border fighting between Hezbollah and the Israeli army has increased, raising concerns that the Hezbollah terrorist army (which has at least 50,000 jihadist fighters and 150,000 rockets supplied by Tehran) is preparing to join Hamas and Islamic Jihad in a full-throttle attack on Israel. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken warned of “the possibility of Iranian proxies escalating their attacks”. Israel and its allies, led by the US, must be prepared.

As The Wall Street Journal has argued, the ayatollahs need to know that more than their terrorist proxies are at risk. “They need to know that their nuclear sites and oilfields are also on the target list.”

US deterrence lost much of its clout over the chaotic abandonment of Afghanistan in 2021. White House warnings did not deter Vladimir Putin from invading Ukraine. Neither have they stopped Iran’s proxies directly attacking US forces and facilities 83 times. Perceptions of US strength are also still suffering from Barack Obama’s failed attempts over his “red line” against the use of chemical weapons in Syria. This time, the stakes are far higher. The ayatollahs’ evil is at the core of the current crisis.