Rudd Redux wrongly ridiculed

THERE are signs Julia Gillard's closest supporters have started to crab-walk away from her as they privately concede a leadership challenge by Kevin Rudd is inevitable and she is likely to lose.

The student politics-style leaking of a video showing a foul-mouthed Rudd has spectacularly backfired, allowing him to address lingering concerns about his return, and is being seen in caucus as another poor judgment call by Team Gillard.

A few weeks ago Gillard's key backers, most notably Simon Crean, were openly attacking Rudd. This only drew attention to the divisions inside Labor. They then shifted to ridiculing his leadership bid, saying it was a "hoax" and calling him "gutless" for failing to mount a challenge. Then they realised Rudd's numbers were building and the media wasn't making it up.

In the past week, key Gillard backers limited or ruled out discussions on background or on-the-record about the leadership, believing it was simply fuelling speculation. Today, few want to talk about it at all, and almost nobody who counts numbers is giving an enthusiastic defence of Gillard's leadership.

The reason is because they recognise much to their dismay, disappointment and displeasure that Gillard is finished.

The leadership battle is moving into an active organising and counting phase sooner than expected. Some Gillard supporters are worried they have misjudged Rudd Redux and formulated the wrong strategy to quell his bid to return to the leadership. They fear the backbench and much of the cabinet is moving against them. All they can do is remind MPs of the worst aspects of the Rudd era, including the chaos, micro-management, centralised control and scorn for the backbench. But this is not working and yesterday Rudd promised to delegate and consult more.

The reason the momentum is with Rudd is because of poor decisions and stumbles by Gillard, reinforced by the video leak.

Gillard's awkward interview on Four Corners followed a series of poor calls that have plagued her for months, including the badly managed ALP national conference, the botched reshuffle, the abandonment of the poker-machine deal with Andrew Wilkie and the Australia Day debacle.

Some are urging Gillard to bring on a ballot, hopefully see Rudd defeated, and then move to destroy his credibility.

But this depends not on Rudd, but on Gillard regaining authority, credibility and a sharper political judgment. Nobody is hopeful.