Coalition’s dreaming if it thinks Berejiklian has given it more hope

• Federal Election 2019 Full Coverage

It is understandable the Coalition is buoyed by the history-making re-election of Gladys Berejiklian’s government in NSW. But the celebrations are likely to be short-lived because there is little evidence to suggest state election results influence federal election outcomes, especially in NSW.

Those trying to extrapolate votes in state seats to federal seats are wasting their time. Voters have a long history of differentiating between leaders, parties and issues in state and federal elections, even when held close together. Nothing in Saturday’s election result ­augurs well for the Coalition.

The NSW Coalition won a third term in 1971 but Labor was swept to power federally the following year. In 1975, the Coalition won the federal election but Labor won the NSW election six months later. In 1987, Labor won a federal election but the NSW Coalition won the state election the year after. In 1995, Labor claimed government in NSW but the Coalition won the federal election a year later.

Moreover, Berejiklian, despite a range of voter grievances on ­issues such as road and rail projects, asset sell-offs, council amalgamations and lockout laws, led a united government and projected integrity. Scott Morrison, despite his considerable strengths as a campaigner, leads a government riven with division and lacking credibility.

Berejiklian leads a government focused on practical policy rather than wasting time prosecuting tiresome culture wars. She is a moderate leader who believes delivery is more important than ideology. The NSW Coalition, in contrast to its federal counterpart, has an energy policy that balances reliability and cost with action on climate change. The voters want both.

The NSW Liberals have had ­orderly leadership transitions from Barry O’Farrell to Mike Baird to Berejiklian across two terms. The party has united behind her and talk of leadership coups are anathema. Again, contrast that to the federal Liberals, who are on to their third leader in three years — and the recriminations continue.

Bill Shorten won’t make the same mistakes that NSW Labor leader Michael Daley did. Daley was Opposition Leader for just 134 days before the election but he proved in that short time to be gaffe-prone. While the stadium issue initially worked in his favour, he stumbled during the final week over policy costings, and his past comments about Asians taking jobs and houses from kids were shocking.

Shorten has done the hard work on policy development, whether you like his initiatives or not. He knows what he wants to do in government and has been upfront with voters about it. He has finetuned his political messaging and his presentation has improved considerably. And his party is behind him.

Last week, I spent time with Shorten in Perth and conducted a lengthy interview with him that was published last Saturday. I’ve travelled with Shorten in the past and interviewed him several times. But this time, just weeks out from an election, he impressed with his command of policy, the sharpness of his political rhetoric and his ease with voters.

Being Opposition Leader for 5½ years has been character-building because he has made mistakes and learned from them. “The best training ground to become prime minister of Australia is to be leader of the opposition because it tests you. You get examined, you get scrutinised,” he said.

Shorten has thought about the prime ministership. He will lead a big, bold, reforming government. He wants to be a transformational leader and he will draw on his strengths as a transactional leader to deliver it. This means skilfully managing his party, negotiating trade-offs with business and ­unions, and building coalitions with policy stakeholders.

Labor is proposing an ambitious shift in the policy settings of government that it believes are in tune with the times. It would be more interventionist and would plough money into hospitals and schools, and fund huge climate change, housing and welfare programs. But it also promises to deliver budget surpluses and pay down debt, mostly by curbing massive tax benefits.

Shorten also wants to bring the nation together and inaugurate a new era of consensus politics. This may be personally difficult given his low approval ratings. But he is an effective advocate for Labor. At the 2016 election, he out-campaigned Malcolm Turnbull and Labor gained 14 seats against the odds. It would be a grave mistake for the Coalition to underestimate him.

He was impressive when answering questions at the Perth Town Hall last week. He has done more than 80 question-and-answer sessions with voters since 2013. He was confident and assured but also relaxed and engaged with the audience. Shorten told me he would probably continue town hall meetings if he became prime minister and might bring back community cabinet meetings.

Morrison was jubilant on Saturday night. “In another two months we will be back here to celebrate another Liberal-National Party win,” he told the faithful. He must remain optimistic. Morrison, along with Josh Frydenberg, is the best thing going for the Coalition. But they inherited a divided and dysfunctional government, and remain a mile behind in the polls.

The Coalition’s election victory in NSW had nothing to do with federal politics. Indeed, Berejiklian won despite the disunity and chaos in the federal Coalition. It will provide a much-needed lift in morale just weeks ahead of the federal election. But there is no evidence to suggest it will do anything to improve the Coalition’s chances of retaining government in May.