NSW election: voters are angry but change is not a given

The NSW government has been dying a death of a thousand cuts for years and has not been able to stem the bleeding. It has not been a good manager of government and is hopeless at politics.

Voters have a plethora of things to be angry about: banning greyhound racing, council amalgamations, a series of asset sell-offs, disruptive road and rail projects, killing Sydney’s night-life, uprooting 100-year-old trees, moving the Powerhouse Museum, a million dead fish and the stadiums rebuild.

That’s just for starters. Across the state, voters have built up grievances against a government that struggles with basic service delivery and presides over crowded hospitals and schools, trains that don’t run on time, while its ambitious capital works program has won it little support.

It is a killer fact that after eight years in power, the NSW government has not cut the ribbon on a new transport project in Sydney. The CBD light rail has been an unmitigated disaster, with delays and cost overruns, and legal action, yet we still don’t know when it will be finished.

It is little wonder that Gladys Berejiklian has not been able to convince voters that her government deserves a third term.

With a strong economy and low unemployment, re-election should not be a tough sell, but there has been no compelling narrative for re-election.

Berejiklian may have a big vision for the state, is across the detail of policies and programs, and is a person of integrity, but she is just not a good communicator.

The backbiting and chaos in the federal Liberal and Nationals parties has not helped.

There is plenty for voters to be unhappy about but has Labor done enough to return?

The opposition frontbench is exceptionally weak. Michael Daley showed some spark when he reignited the stadium spend — a clever strategy devised by his predecessor, Luke Foley — but he has had a train wreck of a final week.

Labor assembled a crack campaign team that brought him to the brink of victory. He may still get there, shattering records, given his brief time as leader, but this looks less likely than it did a week ago. He struggled over costings during the leaders’ debate. His past comments on Asian immigrants were appalling.

He just does not look like he is ready to be premier.

A minority government, the polls suggest, looks likely. If Berejiklian claims victory, it will be the first time the Liberals have won a third term in NSW since 1971.

Either way, this will be a history-making election.