Clinton aide says Democrats must stick to the centre

More than a dozen candidates are seeking US Democratic Party nomination to take on Donald Trump next year. More, including former vice-president Joe Biden, are expected to announce they are joining the race. But this contest is shaping up to be as much a battle for the presidency as it is for the soul of the Democratic Party.

The moderate centrist politics personified by the two-term presidencies of Bill Clinton and Barack Obama may be a thing of the past. The Democratic Party is shifting leftwards and is becoming radicalised, as its congressional and gubernatorial leaders advocate a new era of big government spending, regulation and redistribution, even socialism.

This is a global trend as centre-Left and centre-Right parties edge towards their flanks, and centrist middle-of-the-road politics has few champions. Trump is an agent of this change.

He has turned the Republican Party into something it never was under Ronald Reagan and the Bushes as it embraces nativism and populism, and retreats from leadership of the liberal world order. John Podesta, who served as chief of staff to Clinton (1998 to 2001) and counsellor to Obama (2014 and 15), was recently in Australia. He chaired Hillary Clinton’s presidential campaign.

In an interview for this column, Podesta says Democrats must focus on economic inequality and opportunity coupled with healthcare and climate change but from a “mainstream”, “progressive” and “centrist” perspective to defeat Trump.

“In the aftermath of the global recession, people felt like the top got off, the middle got squeezed and the bottom got forgotten,” Podesta, 70, says.

“The political response didn’t hold. The people who were responsible for the recession consolidated their power. The response was both an economic failure and a political failure.

“Nobody wants small bore; they don’t want you to discount the politics in advance. They want candidates to be ambitious. They want to hear how they can get the job done, on climate change, on healthcare, on jobs and wages. There is a variety of approaches to that; some will be more progressive and some will be in the mainstream of what has been Democratic thinking.

“I don’t think the public, or the Democratic Party, is in a mood to hear that ‘the era of big government is over’, as my former boss Bill Clinton famously said.

“They want the government on their side aggressively trying to build a fairer and more sustainable economy. The circumstances today are very different.”

Podesta says two key mistakes cost Republicans their House majority last year. First, tax cuts were weighted towards the wealthy. Second, their attempted repeal of Obama’s healthcare legislation would hurt middle America. He notes that Democrats won suburban seats in states such as Oklahoma, South Carolina and Texas running as a “centrist” on the economy but with “big ambition” on healthcare and climate change.

There is no doubt Biden will run for the Democratic presidential nomination for 2020, Podesta says. He knows Biden well. It would be Biden’s third run for president, after poor performances in 1988 and 2008. Now, he is the frontrunner in a crowded field due to his experience, credibility and authenticity. But his age (76) and centrism might be a handicap in primaries and caucuses.

The other top-tier nominee is socialist Bernie Sanders, who believes voters are now more willing to accept his radical brand of politics. But Sanders also has an age handicap — he is 77 — and it is doubtful he can beat Trump. The debates between Democratic presidential contenders begin in June. The Iowa caucus is February 3, 2020 — less than a year away.

“The top issue, more than where you stand on the political spectrum, is who can get that guy (Trump) out of the Oval Office,” Podesta says. “The party is going to make a judgment about that. But I think they are going to wait to see a bit of competition, wait for the debates, and wait to see who can emerge in Iowa.”

Podesta divides the rest of the Democratic field into second and third tiers. He puts former congressman Beto O’Rourke and senators Cory Booker, Kamala Harris and Elizabeth Warren just below Biden and Sanders. The third tier, well behind, includes Julian Castro, Tulsi Gabbard, Kirsten Gillibrand, John Hickenlooper, Jay Inslee and Amy Klobuchar.

“A billion dollars will be spent by this collection of people trying to convince Democrats they are the right candidate to go against Trump,” Podesta says.

It won’t be easy defeating Trump, who has shattered the norms of US politics; he’s unpredictable and remains popular with his base. But this is also Trump’s weakness; he has not expanded his support in key states and his overall approval remains below that of many other presidents seeking re-election.

Bob Mueller’s report, and Trump’s response, will shadow the 2020 election. “There was clearly collusion,” Podesta says. “The question is whether there was a criminal conspiracy and that’s what Mueller will have to render judgment on.” When Podesta’s emails were hacked, suspicions fell on Trump adviser Roger Stone, who has since been indicted. “I had a little smile on my face when that happened,” Podesta says.

Podesta says Russian interference was one of many factors that contributed to Hillary Clinton’s defeat. She finds it difficult to accept it was anything other than the Russians and the botched FBI investigation that cost her the presidency. In truth, Clinton did not articulate how she was a “change” candidate or have an ­effective economic message

In any event, Podesta believes Australia’s federal election in May is also vulnerable to a cyber-attack where hacked information could be “weaponised” for political purposes. “You could very easily see foreign interference, whether by the Russians or by the Chinese or others,” he says. “Putin did it, he got away with it, he got a very Russian-friendly president out of it.”