No clean hands in any Rudd Redux

ANOTHER batch of disastrous polls has led to speculation that Rudd Redux is again ascendant.

While there is no timetable for a leadership change and no detailed counting of the numbers yet, this talk will weaken the government until it is resolved.

But among MPs wanting a change, there is concern that Kevin Rudd may spurn the chance to return to The Lodge. Unless a way for a largely bloodless transfer of power is devised, he is likely to remain on the sidelines as Julia Gillard cascades to a probable defeat of historic proportions.

Of course, Rudd wants to be prime minister again. Like Bob Hawke and John Gorton, he never wanted to vacate the position. But consider the downside to Rudd returning but failing to win the next election.

First, Gillard and Wayne Swan will escape some of the blame for the government's demise. They will argue Rudd must shoulder some responsibility for the defeat.

Second, if Rudd leads Labor to defeat then it is more likely the caucus will opt for Bill Shorten or Greg Combet as leader. Rudd has not ruled out leading Labor in opposition where, as a popular former prime minister, he could chart a comeback.

The upside of a Rudd return is not only that he gives the party hope, he could do the unthinkable and win. But even Rudd's closest supporters concede this is unlikely. Rudd's commission will be to save seats, not win a third term.

Reclaiming the prime ministership would give Rudd the satisfaction of revenge for his ousting which can never be discounted as a motivating force in politics. But Rudd's caution is frustrating some of his supporters. He will not challenge. (Even though some of his more exuberant supporters don't rule this out.) Meanwhile, those in Gillard's inner circle say she will not resign. To hand over to Rudd would be a repudiation of the leadership coup and her prime ministership.

There is no party elder with the weight to force Gillard to abdicate. Several faction leaders are already in the Rudd camp; Gillard won't heed overtures from them to resign. The prospect of faction leaders who were behind Gillard's elevation, such as Shorten, switching to Rudd is remote. Nor can Shorten be a passive player which would be the same as being with Rudd. His reputation would be trashed if he were involved in another coup.

Pressed to sketch out a scenario conducive to a leadership change, senior party figures suggest that first, there has to be a clear shift to Rudd among caucus members. Second, they have to use these numbers to force Gillard to resign. And third, they have to persuade Rudd that his return can work without too much destabilisation.

And if there is a caucus stampede for Rudd, how will the inevitable cabinet resignations be managed? Gillard and Swan will not serve under Rudd. Given

the venomous tongue-lashings meted out by Tony Burke, Stephen Conroy, Peter Garrett and others, how could they serve in his cabinet?

The Gillard camp cannot be underestimated. They will fight any leadership putsch. Still, Rudd's supporters are confident that Gillard will eventually be forced to resign -- more bad polls, a serious blunder or a scandal could spark a leadership change.

Those who have been analysing the numbers suggest Rudd is probably still sub-40 votes in a caucus of 102. But a bunch of MPs are now regarded as undecided.

In NSW, where the government holds the most seats, the most MPs and Senators from the Right and the Left factions are believed to be supportive of Rudd's return. Sources suggest just two ministers from the NSW Right, Burke and David Bradbury, are still firmly in the Gillard camp.

The party organisation in NSW, run by Sam Dastyari, is staying out of it for now, neither lifting a finger for Gillard nor sponsoring a Rudd return. This should trouble the Gillard forces, given that some MPs are less wedded to her leadership than they were in the past.

The Gillard camp says that Rudd is treacherous and disloyal, that he lacks Labor values, that his popularity is illusory and that he led a chaotic and dysfunctional government. To change leaders again would invite ridicule from voters who dislike revolving-door leadership changes.

The Rudd camp says Gillard has lost the trust of voters with broken promises on the budget surplus and the carbon tax, she continually makes errors of political judgment, lacks credibility with voters, and will lead Labor to slaughter. They say Rudd will save Labor seats, maybe even win an election.

This is the choice for Labor. As one senior party figure said to me last week, "Nobody has clean hands. Not after what Gillard did to Rudd, or after what he has done to her." If Labor is considering Rudd Redux, then it must formulate a clean and effective transition plan otherwise a leadership change -- Labor's fifth in 10 years -- is far from inevitable, no matter how terrible the polls get.