Morrison overplays politics of fear and nobody buys it

Paul and Annita Keating on election night in 1993.

Scott Morrison has told ministers he can do what Paul Keating did 25 years ago and win the “unwinnable election”. It is not often that you see a Liberal prime minister seeking to emulate a Labor predecessor, but the notion that the 2019 election could be similar to 1993 has gained currency in ­Coalition ranks.

Keating’s unlikely victory against the odds in March 1993, having demolished Liberal leader John Hewson’s radical Fightback! manifesto, has been evoked by Morrison and those closest to him as their most likely pathway to victory, even though the latest Newspoll spells diabolic trouble for the government.

However, the comparative analysis with 1993 is flawed. First, Morrison is no Keating. Second, Bill Shorten is no Hewson. Third, it is a myth that Keating waged only a scare campaign to clinch victory. What’s more, the ­Coalition cannot expect voters to ­ignore the dysfunction that has characterised its two terms in ­office.

Morrison, the third prime minister in three years, inherited a divided government. While Newspoll shows the Coalition leads Labor on economic management, national security and border protection, it has not translated to an overall election-winning lead. While Morrison is a capable politician, voters are not going to whitewash the past six years.

Keating also inherited a government behind in the polls and a party still torn after the felling of Bob Hawke in December 1991. But Keating was long regarded as Hawke’s heir apparent. He was a reforming treasurer, and ­although tarnished by the recession, was seen as a driving force in the government. He had credibility and respect, although not popularity.

In less than 12 months as prime minister, Keating had united Labor, recast the government’s policies and was ahead in the polls. By the beginning of the 1993 campaign, after the polls had seesawed, the government was behind by just 49 to 51 in Newspoll. Five weeks later, Labor secured a record fifth term and increased its primary vote and seat tally.

Hewson had only joined the Liberal Party in 1985, was elected to parliament in 1987 and had not served as a minister. He was not a natural nor comfortable politician, and traded on his outsider status. He was a policy wonk with an MBA who drove a red Ferrari. He lacked the political killer instinct and Keating’s self-confidence.

Shorten has lived and breathed politics his entire life. He has served more than a decade in parliament, been a minister and led a largely united opposition for two terms. He has grown in the role, especially over the past year, is confident of victory and unfazed by the attacks that come his way.

Shorten’s agenda is not in the same league as Hewson’s 600-page Fightback! manifesto — the most radical policy blueprint since Gough Whitlam’s It’s Time program in 1972. Hewson proposed a 15 per cent GST, ending GP bulk-billing for all but pensioners and healthcare card holders, restricting welfare payments, abolishing workplace awards and slashing spending by $10 billion.

While Shorten has not gifted Morrison anything like this, the Coalition is embarking upon the mother of all scare campaigns. The attacks on Labor’s tax and spending plans have been relentless. Labor’s workplace policies and union links are also in the firing line. And Labor’s support for medivacs has revived border protection as an election issue.

According to Morrison, Labor’s radical agenda will, apparently, send the economy into a recession, spark a housing market crash, return the country to the ­industrial mayhem of the 1970s, destroy the retirement plans of seniors and cause the people-smuggling trade to restart. This hyper-partisan rhetoric is overcooked and voters know it.

In 1993, Keating’s attack on Hewson’s agenda was unremitting. But it was not just a scare campaign. Fightback! represented a fundamental challenge to Labor’s policies over the previous decade. It was legitimate for a government to campaign against an opposition that wanted to dismantle Medicare, the Accord and the social welfare system.

Moreover, Keating pledged a new agenda for a new government. He had a plan to stimulate business investment, including cutting company tax. He promised to invest in education and training. He would increase the childcare fee rebate. He signed a new accord that provided wage increases. And he put the republic on the agenda. Morrison is also working feverishly to announce new policies, but nothing seems to be shifting votes.

In short, Morrison is not fighting on the same ground that Keating was in 1993. He does not have an opposition promising fundamental changes across government. He does not yet have a compelling agenda for re-election. The continuing divisions within the Liberal Party over leadership changes, key policies such as energy and climate change, and ideology remain barely ­concealed.

There is nothing to indicate that the Coalition is not headed for a rout come May. Suggestions of a comeback like Keating in 1993, or indeed like John Howard achieved in 2001 or 2004, are wishful thinking. The government has not led the opposition in a Newspoll since the last election. It has been behind 47 to 53 per cent on a two-party basis in three successive polls.

The Coalition cannot escape its history. Morrison maintains a slight leadership edge over Shorten in the polls. But the chances of an unlikely victory are heavily weighted against the government. A new suite of policies and better political messaging are not enough. Nor is a scare campaign. As the old saying goes: “You can’t fatten a pig on market day.”

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