Great week to launch a campaign

JUST days after Tony Abbott stood among the Liberal Party faithful in Sydney's west and announced a mini-campaign, Julia Gillard's announcement of an election on September 14 has guaranteed a marathon 227-day campaign for both leaders.

"We've moved from being in hell to being in purgatory," said a key member of Gillard's inner circle on the significance of announcing the election date.

Announcing the date is a clear signal, they suggest, that Gillard knows she is unlikely to win the election. Ceding this advantage is only useful if you are in striking distance of winning.

That's the best explanation for a decision that has baffled the party's most experienced campaign professionals. Labor has given the Coalition the unprecedented opportunity to plan its campaign logistics well in advance of polling day.

And by announcing the date now, voters will see much of what the government does as campaigning rather than governing.

The election announcement came at the mid-point of a horror week for Labor, still bruised by the "captain's pick" of Nova Peris as Labor's NT senate candidate after the brutal political execution of sitting senator Trish Crossin.

Last week's turbulence included Tim Mathieson's prostate joke gaffe, veteran Labor MP Robert McClelland's flagged retirement, Craig Thomson's arrest on fraud charges and continuing fallout from the corruption hearings into the former NSW Labor government. If that wasn't enough, on Friday night the party's senior vice president, Tony Sheldon, said that Labor at all levels was suffering "a crisis of belief brought on by a lack of moral and political purpose".

Then on Saturday, just days after Gillard announced the election date, two senior cabinet ministers, Chris Evans and Nicola Roxon, announced they were quitting politics and vacated the ministry. After the week that was, the timing of this could not have been worse.

Gillard argued there was nothing wrong with the timing of the resignations and she had known a year earlier that they wanted to quit. If Gillard had known a year earlier Evans and Roxon wanted to quit, then why announce it after a terrible week and after an election date has been called?

New ministers in key portfolios will have to front parliament just a day after being sworn in.

Labor MPs are worried that the government looks like it is in perpetual disarray. One senior Labor MP described the week as a "cluster f . . k". They say it shows that the Prime Minister suffers from chronic poor judgment.

It has also led, unsurprisingly, to renewed leadership speculation about a possible Kevin Rudd comeback. "Rudd supporters," an MP said cheekily, "are concerned she'll take the show so far down that he can't save it." While a leadership change can never be ruled out, it remains remote at best.

On the plus side, Gillard has promoted the right people. Chris Bowen was happy to be relieved of the immigration portfolio and takes over Evans's portfolio covering universities, skills, science and research. He also gains small business. Mark Drefyus is expected to be a competent attorney-general. Brendan O'Connor is also a capable minister and takes the immigration portfolio.

Jason Clare will attend cabinet as cabinet secretary. Mike Kelly joins the outer ministry as minister for defence materiel. It is worth noting that Clare and Kelly are both from the NSW Labor Right.

Clare, seen by many as a future leader, will play a more public role in helping to address crime issues in western Sydney, where the government has five seats requiring swings of less than 5 per cent against to be lost.

Labor strategists say the May budget statement will be the last big chance to sway voter support back to the government.

This will also be a test for Abbott. His reply to the budget, via a live television audience just four months out from an election, will provide a key opportunity to present costed and funded policies within a philosophical framework for governing.

We are yet to see an effective speech from Abbott that unites his policies with his approach to government and his personal values. Abbott's advisers know this. Last week, The Daily Telegraph's Simon Benson obtained an email from one of Abbott's advisers arguing for more of the "vision thing" in his speech to the National Press Club.

Abbott, however, just wanted the media to think he was "a good bloke". This statement underscores the concern about Abbott's record low personal approval ratings. No opposition leader has been as unpopular for this length of time.

One Coalition MP argues that the shift to "the real Tony" or "positive Tony" is being addressed in three key ways.

First, is the message that Abbott is a "common man" as Margie Abbott described him at the mini-campaign launch. Picture Abbott the family man, the community firefighter and the athlete raising money for charity.

Second, he is a conservative on most political issues, like his mentor John Howard, which may appeal to voters as the political pendulum continues to swing away from Labor.

And third, Abbott has experience as a minister in government, which neither Rudd nor Gillard had. This will be used to create the perception that Abbott will lead with stability and capability after years of policy blunders and backflips, scandals and crises.

But some Coalition MPs are worried about the lacklustre C-team from the Howard years dominating the shadow ministry, the potential for policy errors and Abbott's perennial habit of putting his foot in his mouth.

When Labor's purgatory ends, it will face a Day of Judgment. Or, as the election falls on the Jewish holy day of Yom Kippur, perhaps it will be a Day of Atonement. But the fifth September election since federation may have more positive omens for Gillard.

The first September election was in 1914, when Labor's pioneering leader Andrew Fisher returned for his third term as prime minister. The last was in 1946, when the saintly Ben Chifley led Labor to its first successive election win.

Gillard will be hoping if not praying that some of this history augurs well for Labor in eight months' time.