Gladys Berejiklian has one year to solve her many problems

NSW Premier Gladys Berejiklian. Picture: AAP.

Most governments fall because of accumulated grievances. Some make catastrophic errors of judgment, others do too much too soon or not enough. They may govern during a time of economic or social upheaval and become collateral damage. Others may be given an opposition that self-­destructs with a risky leader or ­unpopular policies.

One year out from the NSW election — March 23 next year — Gladys Berejiklian’s government is faltering because of mounting complaints and grumbles about policies and programs across the board, its permanent tin ear for politics, accident-prone ministers and the lack of a compelling narrative to explain priorities such as its massive infrastructure plan.

Berejiklian is struggling to connect with voters. While respected for her dignity, poise and work ethic, there is no razzle-dazzle. Berejiklian often looks uncertain and downbeat when fronting the media, and she lacks authority and confidence. Her cabinet leaks like a sieve. There does not seem to be any overarching vision to stitch together her government’s policies. Berejiklian is no Mike Baird.

In contrast, Labor leader Luke Foley increasingly is cutting through with voters, his critique of the government is resonating, he is rolling out new policies, the opposition’s campaign is stepping up a gear and the opposition frontbench has elevated its profile.

The last Newspoll had the government and the opposition tied 50-50 on the two-party vote. Yet Labor remains cautious about its chances of claiming government next year.

Foley is not a typical modern Labor leader. He has a genuine working-class background. He is a social conservative. He has pledged not to reintroduce the radical Safe Schools program. He does not support voluntary euthanasia laws. He has urged a rethink on the pace of immigration. He will legislate against racially ­motivated violence. He promises to be a moderate Labor leader and looks to Neville Wran and Paul Keating as his role models.

Foley is on a bus tour through NSW this week. He will spend about half the week in the regions — where the government has suffered huge swings against it in by-elections — and half the week in the suburbs. He is emulating Bill McKell, who made winning seats in the regions a priority ahead of Labor’s landslide victory in 1941. On Sunday, Foley will officially launch Labor’s Schools and Hospitals Before Stadiums campaign in Penrith.

Berejiklian is seeking a third four-year term in government. The last time the Coalition won a third term was in 1971. Labor needs to gain 13 seats and a uniform swing of 8 per cent to 9 per cent to secure a majority in its own right: undoubtedly a tall order.

But the government needs to lose only seven seats to lose its majority. The lower house crossbench already numbers six MPs, half of whom are Green. A ­minority parliament is possible.

The fracturing of the conservative vote is a threat to the government. While Cory Bernardi’s Australian Conservatives and Pauline Hanson’s One Nation have underperformed, they could drain votes from the Coalition. The Shooters, Fishers and Farmers and David Leyonhjelm’s Liberal Democratic Party also pose threats to the government, especially with optional preferential voting.

Although the economy is powering along and the budget is in surplus, the government’s problems are mounting. The most damaging is the $2.5 billion plan to demolish and rebuild two Sydney stadiums. There is little public support for this policy given the demand on hospitals and schools, and it divides the government.

The government’s infrastructure program — roads, transport, hospitals and schools — should be a winner with voters. But roads are being carved up, houses are being acquired compulsorily and 100-year-old trees are being felled while communities worry about local traffic congestion and smokestack pollution. None of this is being managed well. Protests are swelling in inner urban areas while many in the outer suburbs doubt their horror commute will improve.

These problems are of Berejiklian’s making. But she also has been saddled with legacy issues from Baird, who sank so fast with voters it is no wonder he cut and ran. The proposed ban on greyhound racing, on which Foley led opposition, plus proposed council mergers and privatisations have soured support for the government.

Andrew Constance, the Transport and Infrastructure Minister, has become a liability. His plan to name a ferry Ferry McFerryface was farcical. He presided over a railway timetable debacle that Foley has cleverly exploited. Constance can’t sell the government’s achievements. When the new light rail in ­Sydney’s eastern suburbs was tested last month, Constance compared it to the 1980s television show Knight Rider.

Foley has challenges of his own, not least convincing voters that his team is ready to govern. Many have not forgotten the corruption that plagued Kristina Keneally’s government and the spectacular rout that was given to it. Labor frontbenchers Michael Daley, Ryan Park, Jodi McKay, Walt Secord, Penny Sharpe and Chris Minns are performing well. But there are many frontbenchers who have no profile at all.

Union demands on a Labor government are another concern. Foley has not committed to keeping the 2.5 per cent public sector wages cap. He has, however, made it clear to colleagues he expects to govern in the conservative fiscal tradition of Bob Carr, Wran and McKell.

NSW is Australia’s biggest state and the engine room of the national economy. It matters who governs in NSW. Berejiklian should not be ruled out from winning but her difficulties are evident. Yet Foley knows that harvesting discontent will not be enough. While a hung parliament could eventuate, it is worth ­remembering that Carr and Wran won government with a one-seat majority.