Five years of hard Labor

FIVE years ago, Kevin Rudd stood on a stage at Brisbane's Suncorp Stadium and claimed a historic election victory. "It's time," he said, "for a new page to be written in our nation's history."

John Howard's government had been routed by the voters. The former prime minister lost his seat in parliament. Labor now held power federally and in every state and territory. A new dawn for centre-left politics beckoned.

Expectations were high. There was a lot to fit on to that new page in history. Although Rudd's clumsily phrased victory speech tempered that exuberance, the hope remained.

Nobody could have predicted what would follow: a policy record of achievement, yes, but also many failures; a prime minister brutally removed from office; the loss of a parliamentary majority within one term; a new prime minister lacking authority and trust; a government riven by disunity; and a party tarnished by scandal and union corruption.

For those hankering for the landmark reforms or longevity of the Hawke and Keating governments, or the ambition and idealism of the Whitlam government, or the respect and admiration accorded to the Curtin and Chifley governments, these past five years have been a shattering and disillusioning blow.

Today, the government is behind in the polls. State and territory Labor governments have fallen like ninepins. The party's organisational strength has been depleted.

Internal Labor polling, provided for this column, shows the party lagging the Coalition on a two-party-preferred basis by 48 to 52 per cent nationally, and well behind on primary votes.

In NSW, party and union polling shows swings against Labor in western Sydney of up to 10 per cent.

Labor suffers from an identity crisis. A new Essential Media Communications poll shows only 15 per cent of voters believe Labor is clear about what it stands for, what it wants to achieve and who it represents.

The party has not communicated a compelling narrative to explain its overarching purpose in government. This is reflected by the failure to develop, prioritise, implement or communicate policy effectively.

The high point of Labor's past five years was Rudd's apology to the Stolen Generations. It was a rare moment of genuine leadership after a decade of divisive debate. But progress in closing the gap between indigenous and non-indigenous Australians in health, education and life expectancy remains slow.

The abolition of Work Choices was widely supported in the electorate. But the winding back of workplace relations policy to a more regulated labour market than existed after the Keating government's 1993 reforms was a mistake.

The response to the global financial crisis is another achievement. Quick and decisive action in 2008 helped to stave off a recession. But the second stimulus package overspent and burdened the government with a budget deficit it has been unable to repay.

Although increasing superannuation contributions will pay an economic dividend, the government lacks a joined-up policy to lift economy-wide productivity and has mistakenly extended middle-class welfare and industry handouts. However, key economic indicators such as growth, inflation, unemployment, debt and investment show that the economy, on the surface, is strong. The Asian Century white paper should help to communicate the government's economic goals.

The stimulus spending on school projects, despite the delays, duplication and waste, remains generally popular. So too is the rollout of the National Broadband Network, particularly in regional areas. In environmental policy, the Murray-Darling plan, a forestry truce and ocean marine parks are successes.

The National Disability Insurance Scheme, dental scheme and Gonski education reforms are hailed as accomplishments but are yet to be implemented, let alone fully funded.

In education and health, the government's record is patchy. The education revolution has not been realised. But the shift to more school autonomy and parental control, with new testing and metrics, is positive. Trades training centres and the national curriculum are also worthy achievements.

GP super clinics, once a mainstay of Labor campaigning, are seldom mentioned. The health reforms, apparently boosting hospital funding by 50 per cent, have not translated into easily identifiable benefits such as more staff or hospital beds, shorter waiting times or lower costs.

The introduction of the carbon tax and the mining tax, each after backflips, underscores a larger challenge: the failure to prosecute a convincing argument. The carbon tax is no longer about mitigating global warming but about power prices and government benefits.

Asylum-seeker policy is a shambles. Releasing into the community refugees who can claim welfare but are not able to work is expected to drive Labor's vote to new lows in marginal seats.

The Australian Workers Union corruption scandal is biting, and causing consternation within Labor. Bill Shorten's interview on Lateline last week, where he described the association that Julia Gillard helped set up for her then boyfriend as "unauthorised" and "inappropriate", sent shockwaves through the Labor caucus. So did the ABC's 7.30 program with fresh information.

The AWU saga reinforces an image of a government plagued by scandal and still reeling from the disaster of Peter Slipper's appointment as Speaker and the alleged links between suspended Labor MP Craig Thomson and corruption in the Health Services Union. The NSW Independent Commission Against Corruption hearings into the former Labor government are also causing angst in Labor ranks.

The leadership drums are beating again. Despite Labor's climb-back in the polls, MPs are worried it will not hold. Regardless of the outcome of the next election, rebuilding Labor's standing and refreshing its identity will be a big challenge in the years ahead.

On the eve of the 2007 election, I chatted with British Labour man John McTernan. He is now Gillard's director of communications. "There was no love for Labor as a party, brand, movement or anything," he told me. People would vote for Rudd, he said, "despite him being Labor".

His analysis of Labor's brand problem was spot-on then and it is today. On election night, Rudd suggested a celebratory "strong cup of tea and even an Iced VoVo". As McTernan contemplates brand Labor, he will need something much stronger as the clock winds down to the next election.