Clowns to the left, jokers to the right: Dutton’s amateur hour failure

Illustration: Sturt Krygsman.

Five prime ministers have been felled in party room coups in recent decades: Bob Hawke, Kevin Rudd, Julia Gillard, Tony Abbott and Malcolm Turnbull. In each of these power plays, except last week’s, the person who sought to bring them down succeeded them.

Peter Dutton’s lunge for the prime ministership failed spectacularly. It was a personal humiliation and a significant setback for conservatives within the Liberal Party who had long gunned for Turnbull. Scott Morrison, aided by a series of Turnbull tactical manoeuvres, became prime minister without blood on his hands.

The Dutton challenge was so poorly conceived and clumsily executed that those who regard themselves as political professionals should be ashamed. There has not been a challenge so ham-fisted. Dutton’s band of willing executioners, including Michael Sukkar, Zed ­Seselja and James McGrath, are anything but modern-day Machiavellis.

The handbook for political power is Niccolo Machiavelli’s The Prince, published in 1532. In dispensing advice for ruling Renaissance Italy, Machiavelli says learning lessons from the past is essential. A new book by Michael Jackson and Damian Grace, Machiavelliana (Brill), offers a good starting point for understanding Machiavelli’s life and the uses and misuses of his legacy.

Had Dutton and his supporters studied past leadership challenges, let alone Machiavelli, they might have avoided a series of mistakes.

First, there was no popular support for Turnbull to be dumped. He was preferred prime minister in Newspoll. The government was trailing the opposition by just 49 to 51 per cent on a two-party basis. The election, nine months away, was anything but lost. The voters did not want another prime minister removed. It was the wrong time to strike. Rudd knew he had to undermine Gillard for months ­before trying to reclaim the prime ministership in 2013.

Second, Dutton over-estim­ated his support. The petition that Turnbull demanded received only the necessary 43 signatures, and just in time. It was understandable Dutton lost to Morrison by 45 votes to 40 on Friday. His campaign was undercooked. Turnbull was sure of his numbers before his challenge in 2015. So was Gillard in her rushed coup in 2010.

Third, Dutton engaged on Turnbull’s ground. When Turnbull initiated the spill on Tuesday, Dutton should not have nominated. He wasn’t ready. Hawke scheduled two caucus meetings to forestall Paul Keating’s momentum in 1991. But Keating refused to challenge unless Hawke resigned. There was a standoff. Keating won time and stood for leader the following week. He lost but gained enough votes to make a second challenge credible.

Fourth, Dutton followed up his first challenge too quickly. He should have retreated to develop a new strategy and build on his numbers. This is what Keating and Rudd did. A similar strategy was followed by Hawke and Malcolm Fraser in opposition. They were not rushed. Hawke waited for the party to come to him. John Button urging Bill Hayden to stand down was critical.

Fifth, Dutton wasted no time with radio and television interviews spruiking an alternative policy agenda and a softer public image following his challenge. It smacked of panic and desperation. He should have taken the time on the backbench to win over supporters with more subtle interventions on policy over a longer period, as Keating and Rudd did.

Sixth, Turnbull moved swiftly to thwart Dutton. He labelled it an insurgency and act of madness, delayed a further party meeting by demanding a petition, called for legal advice on Dutton’s eligibility as an MP and said he would resign from parliament if defeated. Dutton was damaged and critical time was bought for Morrison and Julie Bishop to build their support.

Turnbull’s actions elevated the chaos and wreckage of last week but he did stop his challenger becoming prime minister. Said Machiavelli: “Men must either be pampered or crushed, because they can get revenge for small injuries but not for grievous ones.” Dutton and his crew were outwitted and outplayed.

The impact of the coup is evident in Newspoll. The Coalition is now behind Labor by 44 to 56 per cent on a two-party basis. The Liberal vote has plummeted to 33 per cent. And Morrison lags Bill Shorten as preferred prime minister by 33 to 39 per cent. This is the first prime ministerial coup not to deliver a lift in the polls.

Much has been said about the so-called Liberal “base”. Has it flocked back to the party now that Turnbull is gone? No. A ReachTEL poll showed that Coalition voters overwhelming preferred Turnbull as leader. That should matter. A shift to the right, given elections are won in the centre ground, would be disastrous.

There is an art and science to politics. It was once practised with skill and aplomb by adherents of the craft on both sides. A generation of politicians who have mostly known only politics as a ­career should know how to play it better. Dutton and his supporters show they know little of applied history when it comes to coups.

The geniuses who sparked last week’s chaos removed Turnbull but failed to replace him with Dutton. The voters are now savagely turning against the government. Morrison should not be underestimated or written off but his challenge to unify the party and lead it to victory at the next election has been made near impossible by those in his own ranks.