Bill Shorten can’t stop Labor turning against Israel

When Bill Shorten sat down with Benjamin Netanyahu in Jerus­alem last year he followed it up with a tweet saying it was a “pleasure” to meet the Israeli Prime Minister, who was “a good friend of Australia”.

This message will be reaffirmed tomorrow when the two meet again, but it is not a view widely shared throughout the Labor Party.

Shorten is walking a tightrope on the highly charged issue of ­Israel and Palestine. His steadfast backing of Israel is fast losing suppor­t inside the party he leads.

The push within Labor to give diplomatic recognition to Palestine is snowballing. The campaign is being run from local branches, energised by the Left faction, ­inside the parliamentary party and by elders such as Bob Hawke and Kevin Rudd.

The Left has long advocated the cause of the Palestinians. But now it is joined by Hawke, Rudd, Gareth Evans and Bob Carr from the Right. In the 1970s, Hawke and Carr rallied support inside the party and the unions for Israel; now they advocate for Palestine.

Their views have been transformed by Israeli hostility to a Pales­tinian state, its refusal to re-engage with the peace process, and its settlement program. They have a point when 137 other nations have recognised Palestine.

At Labor’s next national confer­ence, the platform will almost­ certainly change to declare that a future Labor government would immediately recognise a Palestinian state.

The Left, which reaffirmed this position at a meeting last weekend, will likely have majority support­ at the conference. The Right has fractured, with many now agreeing with the Left.

At his meeting with Netanyahu tomorrow, Shorten will reaffirm his support for Israel. He will restate Labor’s support for a two-state ­solution brokered by a revived peace process.

He will win plaudits for telling Netanyahu that Labor opposes ­Israeli settlements on the West Bank and in East Jerusalem, and that they are a barrier to peace ­negotiations.

But Shorten will not be able to guarantee that a future Labor ­government would not move to ­immediately recognise Palestine as a state.

He will restate Labor policy to only “discuss joining like-minded nations” in recognising a Palestinian state if the peace process stalls. Yet Shorten knows this position won’t hold.

It is telling that Shorten has not rebuked party elders for urging a change in policy.

He can’t hold back the tide sweeping through the party. ­Shorten’s visit to Israel for the Australia-Israel-UK Leadership Dialogue last year was an ­opportunity to restate Labor’s ­historic role in the creation of the state of Israel in 1947 and the warm Australia-Israel relationship.

But if Shorten becomes prime minister the warm friendship ­between Israel and Australia is likely to turn frosty very quickly.