Summer crop boosted by unforeseen rain

Australia’s agriculture production prospects have been boosted by unexpected summer rainfall across much of the country.

Crop production is expected to rise next financial year. Picture: Zoe Phillips

Australia’s agriculture production prospects have been boosted by unexpected summer rainfall across much of the country, raising the predicted value of the summer crop by 14 per cent.

The higher than average rainfall across most of the country is also expected to improve next season’s winter crop.

But the early impacts of the El Nino weather driver, which caused a drier than average spring, will likely mean the yields for the current financial year are lower than the previous two ­record seasons.

Summer crop production is expected to be 4.3 million tonnes, down 17 per cent on last year’s high, but will still be 22 per cent above average, according to the crop report released on Tuesday by the Australian Bureau of Agriculture and Resource Economics and Sciences.

“Summer crop prospects are excellent following better than expected seasonal conditions during late spring and summer in Queensland and northern NSW,” the ABARES report said.

“Much of eastern Australia recorded significant rainfall totals with the influence of ex-Tropical Cyclone Kirrily and ex-Tropical Cyclone Lincoln.

“National summer crop production has been revised up by 14 per cent compared to the ­December 2023 Australian Crop Report.”

The reduction in production is mostly attributed to the dry spring across dryland summer cropping regions, which meant farmers planted less.

“Despite this fall, average to above-average summer rainfall boosted soil moisture levels for crop establishment and growth and provided favourable planting conditions for later-sown summer crops,” the report said.

It comes after some farmers criticised the Bureau of Meteorology’s seasonal outlooks and blamed the weather bureau for negatively affecting the choices of producers.

The 2023-24 winter crop is expected to be down 32 per cent on last year’s production, mainly because of dry conditions in 2023 across Queensland, northern NSW and Western Australia.

The summer rainfall is also ­expected to provide a lingering boost for farmers, with the extra soil moisture likely to herald an improved 2024-25 winter crop.

ABARES has predicted a 6 per cent rebound for Australian agricultural output next financial year, bringing the gross value of Australian farms, fisheries and forestry to $90.8bn.

“Above-average summer 2023–24 rainfall and subsequent build-up of soil moisture reserves in eastern Australia is expected to provide a good incentive for planting ahead of the 2024–25 winter crop season,” ABARES executive director Jared Greenville said.