El Nino threat stalks beaches and beyond

El Nino has arrived, the Bureau of Meteorology has formally declared, heralding hot and dry conditions for spring and early summer for most of the country.

Friends Anna Rushworth and April Hamilton seek temporary respite from the El Nino heat at Gordons Bay, at Sydney’s Coogee, on Tuesday. Picture: Jane Dempster

El Nino has arrived, the Bureau of Meteorology has formally declared, heralding hot and dry conditions for spring and early summer for most of the country.

It is expected the weather phenomenon will continue until at least the end of summer, bringing with it increased fire danger and challenging times for Australian farmers.

The announcement on Tuesday afternoon that El Nino was in effect came after months of speculation and earlier declarations by overseas meteorological organisations.

It was hardly a surprise for residents in Australia’s eastern states already dealing with a spring heatwave that has brought ­temperatures of up to 14 degrees above average for September.

A total fire ban has been ­declared for the Greater Sydney region, where temperatures on Tuesday reached into the mid 30s.

While El Nino lasts, there is an 80 per cent chance that temperatures throughout the country will be warmer than average.

The bureau made its declaration after observing sustained demonstration of three of four criteria it deems represent a shift to El Nino, bringing sustained changes to the atmosphere and Pacific Ocean.

It also formally declared a positive Indian Ocean Dipole, which is also expected to lead to reduced rain in Central and Western Australia.

BOM Climate Services manager Karl Braganza said the twin phenomena were likely to bring particularly pronounced dry conditions in southern parts of Australia.

“Both these climate drivers have a significant influence on the Australian climate, in particular favouring warmer and drier conditions, particularly over spring, but also into early summer,” Dr Braganza said.

“Those conditions are accompanied by an increase in fire danger and extreme heat risk.

“It is really up to individuals and communities now to prepare for a summer of heat and fire hazards.”

After three years of La Nina, which brings increased rainfall to eastern Australia, bushfire conditions are not as catastrophic as those that led to the Black ­Summer bushfires of 2019, which followed years of drought, but the warmest winter on record has led to a rapid drying out of vegetation.

“We’re already seeing extreme conditions in some parts of the continent, particularly in the duration of heat, so we’ve had an extended period of warm and dry weather to start spring,” Dr Braganza said.

El Nino occurs when sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean become warmer than ­average, drawing cloud development and rain away from northeastern Australia and creating a change in direction for trade winds.

El Nino brings with it warmer temperatures, greater temperature extremes, increased frost risk in winter, increased fire danger and a later monsoon onset.

Despite El Nino bringing drier conditions to agricultural regions, Australian ­farmers are expecting this fin­ancial year will produce the third-most valuable crop on ­record, ­according to the quarterly outlook released this month by the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and ­Sciences.

The forecast $80bn value of agricultural crops and ­commodities is down 14 per cent because of lower grain production and weakening cattle and sheep values, as farmers offload their stock because of reduced rain.

But, while it’s bad news for cropping farmers and cattle ­producers, most of the country’s fruit and vegetable growers, who have replenished their water storages during three years of La Nina-induced rain, will benefit from improved growing conditions.