Farmers prepare for dry times ahead

An El Nino could be officially declared as early as Tuesday. But farmers have long been preparing for what’s to come.

Joe Napoleone with his brother Jack and cousin Max, on their Yarra Valley fruit farm. Picture: Arsineh Houspian

The fruit trees in Joe Napoleone’s family orchard in Victoria’s Yarra Valley have not waited for an ­official declaration that Australia’s weather is being dictated by the forces of El Nino.

Telltale signs of the weather phase have also started to show and a warm change has heralded a rapid shift into spring.

Rain that reliably fell for the past three years has diminished and Mr Napoleone knows that every drop, like the showers over the region on Friday, could be the last for a while.

The difference in rainfall and temperature compared to last spring has already materialised in the carefully tended trees on the four Yarra Valley farms that provide for the family’s Red Rich Fruits brand.

“Last spring was really wet and it has carried right through until now but now we are seeing a bit of that change into the El Nino situation,” Mr Napoleone says. “This year, spring has sprung early. A lot of our crops are trending seven to 10 days earlier than last ­season.”

Like most farmers growing crops and livestock, Mr Napoleone will keep an eye on the ­Bureau of Meteorology’s climate driver update on Tuesday.

But the plans for how to deal with the drier conditions an El Nino is expected to bring were put into motion even before the last dry spell ended.

The Napoleone family’s focus has been to capture and conserve water over the past three good years.

“We’ve bolstered our water storage capacity, particularly on our stone fruit farm where we’re doing extensive cosmic crisp (apple) planting,” Mr Napoleone says. “Our number one concern is access to water. We feel that we've covered ourselves with enough storage to get us through if we have a few dry years.”

They have also installed moisture sensors that enable them to accurately monitor how much water is being used and exactly how much the trees require.

Another concern is the warmer days usually associated with El Nino reducing the number of “chill hours” needed to wake the trees from their dormancy. But mostly, in the Yarra Valley at least, the short-term forecast is positive.

Max, Jack and Joe Napoleone. Picture: Arsineh Houspian

“We struggled last spring with the wet,” Mr Napoleone says. “The trees don’t like too much moisture … so the El Nino actually will help us out as long as we don’t run out of water.”

The last El Nino ran from 2015 to 2016, bringing with it characteristic dry conditions for eastern Australia, warmer temperatures, greater temperature extremes, increased frost risk, increased fire danger and a later monsoon, all of which can play havoc for weather-dependent farmers.

While other international meteorological agencies have ­already declared El Nino is in ­effect, the BOM has so far ­retained its “El Nino alert”, indicating a 70 per cent chance of it developing.

Despite the looming El Nino, Australian farmers are expected to produce the third most valuable crop on record this financial year, according to the quarterly outlook released last week by the ­Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences.

The forecast $80bn value of agricultural crops and commodities is down 14 per cent on last year’s $92bn record yield, driven by lower grain production and weakening cattle and sheep values as farmers offload their stock because of reduced rain.