Queensland election live news and results: Annastacia Palaszczuk returned as Premier
The Premier thanks the people of Queensland as she wins a third term; LNP leader Deb Frecklington concedes defeat.
- Frecklington concedes defeat
- Palaszczuk returned as Queensland Premier
- Trad set to lose her seat
- One Nation vote plummets
Welcome to The Weekend Australian’s rolling coverage of the Queensland election.
Queensland Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk has thanked the people of Queensland, promising to “roll up her sleeves” to get back to work “as quickly as possible for you” with a majority Labor government. Here is how election day unfolded:
Further Queensland election data can be found here
Sarah Elks 11.55pm: Leader breaks convention over concession
Liberal National Party leader Deb Frecklington did not call Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk to concede defeat before each delivered speeches, party sources have confirmed.
Ms Frecklington arrived at the LNP’s election night party in the middle of Ms Palaszczuk’s speech, an unprecedented occurrence.
Party sources confirmed Ms Frecklington did not call Ms Palaszczuk, as is usual convention, before she officially conceded defeat.
A source close to Ms Frecklington said the LNP leader was unaware that the Premier was speaking when she made her entrance.
Ms Palaszczuk said in her speech that the election had been more respectful than previous contests, putting it down to the historic competition between the two women leaders.
Ms Frecklington told her supporters that while she conceded the election, she would remain as LNP leader.
But former LNP leader and Clayfield MP Tim Nicholls told the Nine Network it was the normal practice of the LNP to hold a partyroom meeting and spill the leadership positions after an election defeat.
Charlie Peel 11.31pm: Frecklington concedes defeat, will lead on
Deb Frecklington conceded defeat but says she will not stand down as the leader of the Liberal National Party.
Arriving at the LNP’s post-election function at the Emporium Hotel in South Bank about 10.20pm, Ms Frecklington was swamped by supporters and cheers.
She congratulated Annastacia Palaszczuk on her victory and said the LNP would hold the government to account in opposition.
“I will continue to play my part in the LNP and I will continue as the leader of this great party,” Ms Frecklington said.
The Opposition Leader said the LNP would continue to fight for “every minute of the next four years”.
“Queensland still needs a plan,” Ms Frecklington said.
“We are in the middle of an economic crisis. I urge the Premier to support our must important industries and I urge the premier to support the regions.
“This was not our time but our time will come and we will get Queensland working again.”
Sarah Elks 11.24pm: Palaszczuk confident of winning a majority Labor government
Queensland Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk has thanked the people of Queensland, promising to “roll up her sleeves” to get back to work “as quickly as possible for you” with a majority Labor government.
“I promise you I’ll roll up my sleeves tomorrow...and continue to build a better Queensland,†@AnnastaciaMP says, declaring she’s confident Labor has won a majority #qldpol #qldvotes @australian pic.twitter.com/IKZSPvw6nk
— Sarah Elks (@sarahelks) October 31, 2020
Ms Palaszczuk said her team was ready to get back to work, and said she was “confident” of winning a majority Labor government.
“It has not been an easy year for many many people,” she told the party faithful at Labor’s election night party at the Blue Fin Fishing Club, in Ms Palaszczuk’s electorate of Inala.
“It’s been tough not being able to see your family and friends in other states, or even around the world, as we’ve been in the midst of a global pandemic.
“But here in Queensland we’ve all stood strong and united...and if we continue to work together, we’ll continue to stay strong.”
Ms Palaszczuk said she knew there were many people who had voted Labor for the very first time and said she would return that respect.
She is now giving a speech, effectively trying to either; talk over the Premier, or hoping her speech won’t get air time. @7NewsBrisbane
— Joel Dry (@JoelDry7) October 31, 2020
Ms Palaszczuk said it had been the first time two women had gone head to head, and said it had been a much more “respectful debate” this election.
“It’s been tough, there’s been people that have — for example in aged care — who have not been able to go out...people in hospitals who have been sick and not been able to see their friends and family,” she said.
“COVID has taken an incredible toll.”
“We kept Queenslanders safe...I am deeply humbled that I am the Premier of this great state, and you have placed your faith in me for the next four years.”
“There has never been a time like this in our lifetime, and I hope we get through it stronger and better, and we don’t look back at the crisis that was, but how we came out of it, stronger and better.”
Charlie Peel 11.10pm: Frecklington to blame for loss, says Newman
Former premier Campbell Newman says the Liberal National Party’s election loss was “predictable” and that the parliamentary team led by Deb Frecklington is to blame.
“This result was predictable months ago and indeed a year ago the worrying signs were there with a primary vote of 36 per cent,” Mr Newman told The Australian.
“The LNP need to get 40 per cent or above.
“This was quite predictable, it happened because we didn’t, over a three-year period, build the case a, against the government, and be for our re-election.
“It’s been a failure of the parliamentary team and their leadership and they must take accountability for it.”
The former premier said the blame should not fall on the secretariat, party officials or volunteers.
Spare me the COVID-19 excuse for what's happening tonight in Qld. The LNP primary vote was 36pc a year ago. We had a problem prior to the pandemic
— Campbell Newman (@CampbellNewman) October 31, 2020
He said it would be up to the parliamentary team to choose whether they would find a new leader.
“They would have done better with a different leader, but they made it very clear they don’t agree with that,” he said.
“Tonight they have been shown to be totally and utterly wrong.”
Mr Newman said the party should have “defended” the legacy of the government he led between 2012 and 2015.
He criticised the party for failing to make its policies known to voters earlier, saying the platform should have been laid well before the election campaign.
“We didn’t take the fight to Labor enough over the past three years and we didn’t have a coherent plan we’d announced well and truly in time,” Mr Newman said.
“To put it all in the last month or two - big mistake.”
Jamie Walker 11.07pm: LNP result ‘incredibly disappointing’
Deputy Liberal National Party leader Tim Mander has conceded that the Queensland election result is “incredibly disappointing” as Labor hovered on the brink of securing the 47 seats needed to govern in its own right.
“It’s incredibly disappointing, we have to go away and lick our wounds,” he told the ABC.
Mr Mander, an architect of the LNP campaign as the party’s treasury spokesman and 2IC to Deb Frecklington, would not be drawn on whether she should stay on as leader.
“I have absolutely zero criticism of Deb,” he said. “I think she has done a great job under the circumstances … and last thing I am thinking about is the future of Deb or myself for that matter.”
Sarah Elks 11.04pm: ‘We’re pretty certain we’ve done it’
ALP state president John Battams has told the party faithful “we’re pretty certain we’ve done it,” but warns it’ll be a long night.
Mr Battams says Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk has just left her home and is on her way to the Labor function at the Blue Fin Fishing Club, in her electorate of Inala.
Mr Battams has joined federal ALP president Wayne Swan, federal Labor MP Milton Dick, Ms Palaszczuk’s parents Harry and Lorelle and other supporters at the venue.
Labor insiders are hopeful of picking up 50 seats, but say 48 is more likely.
The likely gains are Pumicestone and Caloundra, with Hervey Bay and Bundaberg still possible. All of those seats would be taken from the LNP.
Labor has lost South Brisbane to the Greens.
The LNP does not look like winning any new seats, apart from regaining Whitsunday from Independent Jason Costigan, who was kicked out of the LNP during the last term of parliament.
Michael McKenna 11.01pm: Frecklington’s strategy to win regions a fizzer
Deb Frecklington’s strategy to win government with a sweep of Labor-held marginal seats in regional Queensland fizzled, with the state opposition now in danger of suffering a net loss outside of Brisbane.
Strategists and pundits had predicted that the two-term Palaszczuk government – which held a two seat majority after the 2017 election – was vulnerable in regional Queensland where it held seven seats on margins of 4.1 percent or less.
The LNP had largely focused its campaign and policy platform on regional seats with a controversial curfew in north Queensland and unfunded promises to duplicate Bruce Highway and build the Bradfield scheme.
In the Rockhampton –based seat of Keppel (held on a 3.14 percent margin), Labor MP Brittany Lauga has received a 2.6 percent swing in her primary vote to 45.6 percent after a third of the ballots have been counted. She will hold the seat with preferences from The Greens.
In another of the LNP’s target seats, Barron River – in Cairns’ northern suburbs – Palaszczuk Government minister Craig Crawford is on track to hold the seat with a seven percent swing in his primary vote to 40.3 percent.
The three Townsville based seats are still too early to call, but LNP strategists think that Thuringowa (held by Labor on 4.15 percent) is out of its reach.
Labor is also on track to win the Sunshine Coast seat of Caloundra off the LNP, with Labor’s primary vote jumping almost 14 percent si ce 2017 to 42 percent.
The LNP is also in danger of losing Hervey Bay and Bundaberg – both north of the Sunshine Coast – with Labor leading in the primary vote.
Charlie Peel 10.55pm: Dutton slams ‘treacherous’ former LNP member
Peter Dutton has slammed a former Liberal National Party member for working against the party and says Queensland will go broke if the state’s borders remain closed for another year.
The state’s most senior LNP parliamentarian, who arrived at the LNP’s post-election function in South Brisbane about 9.30pm, said Annastacia Palaszczuk’s border closures were crippling businesses.
“I just think if we’re remaining locked up for the next 12 months, Queensland will go broke,” Mr Dutton said.
“There are businesses that are thoroughly devastated by COVID and you can’t have a situation where you’ve got this in 12 months time, so let’s see what happens.”
The Home Affairs Minister accused former LNP MP Jann Stuckey and her husband Richard of “treachery” for the decision to campaign against the party in the seat she held from 2004 until her resignation in February, alleging she had been bullied by those within the party.
Mr Stuckey contested the Gold Coast electorate of Currumbin against the LNP’s Laura Gerber, who won a by-election in February, and listed Labor above his wife’s former party on how-to-vote cards.
Ms Gerber is still leading the count, but her margin has been slashed.
“They’ve obviously taken a decision to preference the Labor party, which is regrettable,” Mr Dutton said.
“They’ve had years and years given to them by the LNP and the Liberal Party before that, so they’ve got a lot to answer for.”
JAMIE WALKER 10.52pm: Labor fears of Townsville wipeout ease
Labor’s fears of a wipeout in the key election battleground of Townsville have eased, with at least two of its three at-risk seats looking likely to be saved in another crushing disappointment for the Liberal National Party.
With nearly a third of the vote counted, the perennially volatile seat of Thuringowa is set to return sitting Labor MP Aaron Harper who was leading with 38.62 per cent of the vote over the Liberal National Party’s Natalie Marr on 26.27 per cent.
In Mundingburra, Labor’s Les Walker is polling strongly on 38.72 per cent, leading Glenn Doyle of the LNP on 38.72 per cent. Mr Walker, a former deputy mayor of Townsville, stepped in for retiring MP and minister Coralee O’Rourke.
Both sides cautioned that the volume of postal and pre-poll votes, not yet counted, could change the mix but Labor said it was encouraged by the trend.
The seat of Townsville, the state’s most marginal, remains too close to call with incumbent MP Stuart Scott in a tight contest with John Hathaway of the LNP.
The LNP needed to win at least two of the Townsville seats to have a shot at forming government.
Former ALP state secretary and senator for Queensland Anthony Chisholm said Labor was hopeful of salvaging all three electorates.
“On the whole we are pretty positive about Townsville,” Senator Chisholm said. “We’re concerned about the seat of Townsville itself, but fingers crossed.”
Staff writers 10.43pm: Katter comfortably retains Traeger
Katter’s Australian Party leader Robbie Katter has won his electorate of Traeger with a comfortable 60 per cent of the primary vote.
Staff writers 10.30pm: Several seats still too close to call
JAMIE WALKER 9.40pm: Palaszczuk returned as Premier
Annastacia Palaszczuk has been returned as Queensland Premier, with Labor in a position to form minority government with the Greens but on track to govern in its own right.
Labor has 45 seats, two short of the majority mark of 47 in the state parliament.
If necessary, Ms Palaszczuk could now seek support from the Greens party to govern, which has a guaranteed two seats with the re-election of sitting MP Michael Berkman and the defeat of former deputy premier Jackie Trad at the hands of the Greens’ Amy MacMahon.
But on current indications, Labor is a strong chance to be returned in majority government, delivering Ms Palaszczuk a third term as Premier.
Ms Trad’s successor as deputy premier Stephen Miles blamed the Liberal National Party’s decision to preference the Greens ahead of Labor for Ms Trad’s defeat in her seat of South Brisbane.
“They are going to have to answer for that,” Dr Miles said.
Charlie Peel 9.36pm: Sombre mood at LNP function
There’s an uneasy mood at the Liberal National Party’s post-election function in Brisbane where a small gathering of party faithful are watching the results pour in.
About 30 people, mostly Deb Frecklington’s family, LNP staffers and the media, are anxiously glancing towards the projector screen as several of the party’s seats remain in the balance.
No MPs have arrived yet and Deb Frecklington is also yet to make an appearance at the hotel in South Brisbane.
Michael McKenna 9.29pm: Labor a ‘good chance’ to win majority: Swan
Former federal Labor Treasurer Wayne Swan believes a majority government for Annastacia Palaszczuk is a “good chance”.
But Mr Swan has warned Ms Palaszczuk not to entertain a deal with the Greens – which are on track to hold at least two seats — for minority government if Labor fails to secure the 47 seats in the 93-seat parliament needed to hold power in its own right.
Asked on the ABC if Labor could turn to the Greens to form minority government, Mr Swan said his advice would be “don’t do a deal”.
“It is what the premier has been saying (during the campaign)…and my advice would be to stick to it,’’ he said.
Sarah Elks 9.25pm: Palaszczuk’s parents feeling positive
Premier @AnnastaciaMP’s parents Lorelle and Henry are at her election event in Inala. Henry says things are “looking promising†for Labor #qldpol pic.twitter.com/HrT8xPGeTQ
— Sarah Elks (@sarahelks) October 31, 2020
Annastacia Palaszczuk’s father Henry says Labor’s results “look promising” but “there’s a long way to go”.
Mr Palaszczuk, a former MP for Ms Palaszczuk’s electorate of Inala, is at Ms Palaszczuk’s election night party at a sports club in her seat.
“It’s looking promising but we’ve got a long way to go,” he said.
Mr Palaszczuk said there was still less than one-third of the vote counted, with pre-poll and postals still to come.
“If this trend continues, I’d be really happy.”
He said Queenslanders were pleased with his daughter’s handling of the COVID-19 crisis.
“This year...has been a horrendous year,” he said.
“I’ve witnessed people who have caught the virus...and people became very afraid and wanted their leaders, from the Prime Minister down, to do the right thing by them.”
Mr Palaszczuk said Prime Minister Scott Morrison had led by example, and all the Premiers had led strongly.
“(In Queensland and WA) people wanted to be isolated,” he said.
He said he was proud of all four of his daughters, and said Ms Palaszczuk had shown the ability to have political conversations since she was four years old.
Sid Maher 9.16am: LNP cannot win majority government
Based on the trends in the counting to date, the LNP cannot win majority government in Queensland tonight. Labor is on the verge on winning a majority in its own right.
— Sid Maher (@sidmaher) October 31, 2020
Jack the Insider 9.10pm: LNP not the only team to have a bad night
Meanwhile, at ANZ stadium in Sydney the Wallabies are getting trounced by the All Blacks with the score currently 26-5 in New Zealand’s favour.
The Wallabies are having a Frecklington.
— Jack-O'Lantern the Insider (@JacktheInsider) October 31, 2020
JAMIE WALKER 9.06pm: Trad on track to lose South Brisbane seat
Former Queensland deputy premier Jackie Trad shapes as the first high-profile casualty of the state election, and is on track to lose her seat to the Greens.
With nearly 20 per cent of the vote counted in South Brisbane, Ms Trad has 34 per cent of the vote, trailing challenger Amy MacMahon on 42 per cent. This represents a swing of nearly nine per cent to the Greens after preferences are allocated.
Ms Trad’s plight is compounded by the Liberal National Party’s decision to preference Labor behind the Greens, withdrawing the lifeline that saved her in 2017.
Her only hope was to lift her primary vote above the 36 per cent she secured at the last election. Instead, Labor’s base vote has dipped while the Greens have surged on the count so far.
Sitting Greens MP Michael Berkman is on track to be returned in the nearby inner-city seat of Maiwar. With more than a quarter of the vote counted, he is on 42.5 per cent and should fend off a challenge from the LNP.
In Ashgrove-based Cooper in inner-north Brisbane, vacated by retiring state development and tourism minister Kate Jones, Greens candidate Katinka Winston-Allom is ahead on 34.15 per cent, with 28 per cent of the vote counted. Ms Jones’ replacement for Labor, Jonty Bush, is on 32.65 per cent but also will be disadvantaged by the LNP’s preferencing policy to put the ALP last.
However, postal votes are the wildcard. Another Labor inner-city seat, McConnel, was looking promising for the Greens with candidate Kirsten Lovejoy heading Education Minister Grace in early counting. But a 6000-strong batch of postal votes turned this around and LNP sources cautioned about making too much of the results at this point.
On current indications, up to two-thirds of Queensland’s 3.3m voters used the option to lodge a pre-poll or postal ballot.
Daniel Sankey 8.46pm: Count ‘bleak’ for Frecklington: Newman
Former Queensland LNP Premier Campbell Newman said the count was “bleak” for Deb Frecklington.
“I see us losing at least four seats at the moment,” he told Sky News.
“I see the Labor party losing South Brisbane to the Greens and I think McConnel is going to go to the Greens as well, but they’re making up some outright gains from the LNP. We haven’t seen this huge crushing result in the north that people were expecting, so I don’t think it’s going to be our night that’s for sure. Maybe those postal votes and pre-polls that we see later on the in the night might see it turn things around and flow more our way but it’s not where you want to be at this time of the evening.”
Michael McKenna 8.24pm: One Nation vote plunges in Townsville seats
The electoral battleground of Townsville, in north Queensland, has seen a plunge in One Nation’s primary vote in the three Labor-held marginal seats.
The LNP needs to pick at least one of three seats — Mundinburra, Townsville and Thuringowa — to have any hope of taking government.
In the seat of Townsville, the Palaszczuk government’s most marginal seat (0.38%), counting of 9.4 per cent of the vote shows a swing in the primary vote to the Liberal National Party.
The LNP’s John Hathaway has received 35.14 per cent of the primary vote – up from 30.92 per cent in 2017 – with Labor MP Scott Stewart on 33.82 per cent, similar to his primary vote last election.
One Nation’s primary vote has fallen to 3.68 per cent – after receiving 19. 92 per cent in 2017 – with the Greens on 11.05 per cent.
In the neighbouring seat of Mundingburra – where seven per cent of the vote has been counted – Labor candidate and former Townsville deputy mayor Les walker has picked up 36.94 per cent of the primary vote – an increase on the 31.42 per cent secured by returning minister Coralee O’Rourke in 2017.
The LNP’s candidate Glenn Doyle, a police inspector, has received 26.08 per cent – about the same the LNP received in 2017.
Again, One Nation’s vote has collapsed from 2017 – down to 4.84 per cent – from a high of 16.67 in the primary vote at the last election. Katter’s Australian Party is 13.72 per cent – compared to 13.88 per cent in 2017 with the Greens picking up 9.89 per cent, compared to 7.63 per cent last election.
In Thuringoawa (held on a margin of 4.15 per cent), early counting of just 4.32 per cent of the vote shows Labor’s Aaron Harper has increased his primary vote to 36.68 per cent fro
Sarah Elks 8.17pm: Greens set to hold seat of Maiwar
Queensland’s first elected Greens MP — Michael Berkman — looks set to hold the inner-west Brisbane electorate of Maiwar.
With 23 per cent of the vote counted, Mr Berkman is leading on primary vote 42.8 per cent compared to the LNP candidate Lauren Day’s 35 per cent primary.
ABC election analyst Antony Green said he was close to being able to call Maiwar for Mr Berkman.
The Greens are also hoping to win South Brisbane and McConnel from Labor.
In South Brisbane, Labor’s high-profile former Deputy Premier Jackie Trad is in trouble.
Greens candidate Amy MacMahon is leading Ms Trad on primary vote, 39.5 per cent compared to Ms Trad’s 34 per cent, with nearly 10 per cent of the vote counted.
Sid Maher 8.13pm: One Nation vote collapses
Deputy Editor Sid Maher, who is calling the seats for us tonight, says the statewide vote for One Nation is down around 6 per cent.
Sarah Elks 8.10pm: Early swing favours Labor in several LNP seats
There are early swings to Labor in several LNP seats, including unexpected regional electorates such as Bundaberg.
In Bundaberg, north of Brisbane, where 7.25 per cent of the vote has been counted, the Labor candidate Tom Smith has 42.5 per cent of the vote, compared to incumbent LNP MP David Batt 38.6 per cent.
In Caloundra, on the Sunshine Coast where LNP incumbent Mark McArdle is retiring, Labor candidate Jason Hunt is dominating LNP candidate Stuart Coward on primary vote by 44 per cent to 28 per cent.
Scrutineers are reporting a swing against sitting LNP MP Michael Hart in Burleigh, on the Gold Coast. Favouring minor parties, but Labor sources are hoping this will flow back to the ALP's star candidate, Rabbit Bartholomew #qldpol #qldvotes
— Sarah Elks (@sarahelks) October 31, 2020
In Burleigh, the LNP Gold Coast seat held by Michael Hart, scrutineers are saying there’s been a 12 per cent swing against him, with four booths counted of today’s vote. The swing appears to be favouring minor parties, but Labor sources are hopeful those will flow back to Labor celebrity candidate, ex-surfer, Rabbit Bartholomew.
James Hall 8.03pm: The nine seats that will decide election
Counting is underway in the Queensland state election.
For Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk and Opposition Leader Deb Frecklington, the race is on to claim 47 seats or more to forma majority government and rule the Sunshine State.
There are more than 30 marginal seats across the state, but Griffith University political scientist Dr Paul Williams has identifiednine “must watch” electorates to decide if either the Labor Party or Liberal-National Party forms government.
A minor party claiming one or more of these spots may lead to a hung parliament.
EACH SEAT WILL BE UPDATED LIVE AS RESULTS COME IN
Votes for Greens are likely to increase in most electorates, but Dr Williams said support for Pauline Hanson’s One NationParty could dip, and Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party wouldn’t gain traction.
Meanwhile, Katter’s Australian Party was likely to retain its three seats, but not gain any others.
In the southeast, the nine key seats analysts say are the ones to watch this election are Bonney, Burleigh, Caloundra, Currumbin,Gaven, Glass House, Maryborough, Pumicestone and Theodore.
[...]
BONNEY — IN PLAY
INCUMBENT: Sam O’Connor, LNP (1.7 per cent margin)
A new electorate formed before the 2017 election, the LNP holds the Gold Coast seat with a margin of 1.7 per cent.
This seat could go in either the ALP or the LNP’s favour this time around, depending on whether there was a strong “gratitudevote” for Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk.
“We know there’s been a lot of backlash on the Gold Coast against the border closure. These places have felt it hard,” DrWilliams said.
“But, there could be a silent majority which would see Labor gain traction.”
Dr Williams said although he wasn’t expecting to see the seat change hands “anything could happen”.
BURLEIGH — IN PLAY
INCUMBENT: Michael Hart, LNP (4.9 per cent margin)
While Labor will be hoping so-called “celebrity candidate” Wayne “Rabbit” Bartholomew will help them clinch the seat from the LNP, which holds the central Gold Coast seat on a 4.9 per cent margin, Dr Williams said it was unlikely.
“If Labor wins this seat, it won’t be because of an old surfer. It could be because of a gratitude vote for Palaszczuk, orit could be because he has other credentials that makes him the better candidate,” Dr Williams said.
“Celebrity candidates work better in regional areas where they’re well known in town … those communities are more insular;that’s not the case here.”
Dr Williams predicted the Greens vote, which was 16.1 per cent in 2017, could increase alongside Labor’s but incumbent MPMichael Hart looked likely to retain the seat.
CALOUNDRA — IN PLAY
RETIRING: Mark McArdle LNP (3.4 per cent margin)
The LNP holds this once-safe seat with a 3.4 per cent margin.
The retirement of Mark McArdle, who has held the seat since 2004 and was a one-time LNP leader, could spell trouble for the party in this massive growth corridor.
“It’s natural Liberal constituency, full of wealthy retirees, but the influx of young families with mortgages could help Labor,” Dr Williams said.
This is a winnable seat for Labor. The two independents standing in this seat are “problematic” for the LNP and should note underestimated.
“They could spray their preferences everywhere,” Dr Williams said.
“It will be a moral blow to the LNP if they lose this seat.”
CURRUMBIN — IN PLAY
INCUMBENT: Laura Gerber, LNP (3.3 per cent margin)
Despite the most southern Gold Coast seat only holding a by-election in March after the retirement of long-time LNP MP JannStuckey, Dr Williams said the seat was anybody’s for the taking.
Ms Stuckey was a very popular candidate and although the seat was held by the LNP, many constituents didn’t like Deb Frecklington. While it should be safe considering its lengthy history of voting blue, the LNP is terrified to lose it, having lost groundin the by-election.
“It would also be a moral blow for the LNP to lose this seat,” Dr Williams said.
Anna Palmer, wife of mining billionaire Clive, is a candidate however Dr Williams said she was likely to pick up no morethan five points, saying “don’t over-estimate Palmer”.
One independent candidate who could spell trouble for the major parties is Dr Richard Stuckey, husband of the former MP Jann.
“That will draw support away from the LNP, and a lot of those (votes) will go straight to Labor,” Dr Williams said.
“No one should be surprised if Currumbin is lost (to the LNP) on the Stuckey variable alone.”
GAVEN — IN PLAY
INCUMBENT: Meaghan Scanlon, ALP: 0.7 per cent
The only Labor-held seat on the Gold Coast is another must-watch for Dr Williams, and one that incumbent Meaghan Scanlon needsto win.
With only a wafer-thin margin, a matter of hundreds of votes could see the seat turn blue, but Dr Williams said it was likelyto be retained.
“Before COVID, I’d say this would have been gone … But there are some strong Labor pockets in this northern part of the GoldCoast,” Dr Williams said.
“I think there will be a lot of gratitude votes, people like Palaszczuk and like her strong border measures.”
There are 5000 new voters enrolled in this electorate, making it difficult to predict.
And Dr Williams said everything could be null and void if Queensland saw a new cluster of COVID-19 in the last week of the campaign, making this an unpredictable seat to call early.
GLASS HOUSE — IN PLAY
INCUMBENT: Andrew Powell, LNP (3.4 per cent).
The LNP suffered a significant swing against it in the 2017 election, despite the member having held the seat since 2009.
Labor also suffered a swing against it, as One Nation ran a candidate who attracted about 23 per cent of the votes.
Dr Williams predicted One Nation would lose significant traction this election, likely to only win 10 to 15 points.
The Greens vote will be up in Glass House, as will Labor, and the LNP should also win more votes, as former One Nation voterssplit between the two major parties.
“It could go either way, except if I had to choose I’d say the LNP is more likely to retain seat than lose it,” Dr Williamssaid.
“But everything can happen. That’s only a few thousand votes.”
MARYBOROUGH — IN PLAY
INCUMBENT: Bruce Saunders, ALP (2.5 per cent)
While Dr Williams doesn’t see this as a key seat, it’s a must-win for Labor because it won’t face significant competitionfrom the LNP.
One Nation had the second highest votes in the 2017 election but, again, Dr Williams predicts those voters will return toa major party — and in this part of the state it’s more likely to be red.
“This is not One Nation’s election … the tide is out on the populist right,” Dr Williams said.
Labor won 45 per cent of the primary votes last election and could produce a similar result, with LNP in second.
“That’s problematic for the Labor Party with preferences, but given their primary vote should be high with a gratitude vote,and Deb Frecklington failing to gain traction in the regions, Labor is pretty well placed to retain this seat,” Dr Williamssaid.
PUMICESTONE — IN PLAY
RETIRING: Simone Wilson LNP MP (0.8 per cent)
A “super interesting” seat, the electorate which encompasses retirement-haven Bribie Island and working class heartlands ofCaboolture, Pumicestone has already had four members in the past eight years and will be looking at a fifth however this goes.
Voters are likely to look for stability after a “revolving door”, and Dr Williams predicts Labor is where they’ll place theirconfidence – and votes.
However, this is ultra-marginal, and there are little more than 500 votes in the margin.
LNP candidate Fiona Gaske is new to the area, having served as deputy mayor in a southwest Queensland council for a term.
“Labor would love to take this back,” Dr Williams said.
Dr Williams expects votes for Labor and LNP will likely be up, One Nation down, and Greens up slightly.
“This is eminently winnable for Labor,” Dr Williams said.
THEODORE — IN PLAY
INCUMBENT: Mark Boothman, LNP (3.7 per cent margin)
This is only the second election this seat on the northern Gold Coast has been contested and is a must-hold for the LNP andwinnable for Labor.
Dr Williams finds it odd to classify, considering the wide ranging population.
Votes in this electorate could be split on sentiment over the border and economic downtown, with a critical mass potentiallycranky with the Palaszczuk government’s handling of the pandemic and border closures.
Dr Williams said support of the strict border measures wasn’t just geographically based, but also age based, and said theelderly population could swing in Labor’s favour.
“There could be a significant enough vote of families (hard done by) who could potentially outweigh the pensioners,” Dr Williamssaid.
“It’s impossible to tell. The LNP must hold this seat, and are better placed, but it is winnable for Labor.”
– With Ellen Ransley, NCA Newswire
Charlie Peel 7.45pm: LNP preferences ‘won’t necessarily go to Greens’
Federal National Party deputy leader David Littleproud does not believe the Liberal National Party’s decision to put Labor last on how-to-vote cards will necessarily see votes flow to the Greens.
The Queensland-based Agriculture Minister said discerning voters would be angry about Extinction Rebellion protests that have seen streets blocked off during peak hour traffic in the past year and take their frustration out on the Greens.
“I don’t necessarily think LNP voters will put Labor last,” Mr Littleproud told Sky News.
“Preferences are the gift of the Australian people, they are not for a party to trade away.
“These are thinking people and when they go to vote, I think they’ll think, what have the Greens done for us except lock up the streets.”
Federal Labor senator Murray Watt agreed, saying the preference flow would be particularly important in South Brisbane, where former deputy premier Jackie Trad is facing a fierce challenge from the Greens.
“What LNP voters do in South Brisbane will be particularly interesting,” he said.
“I think we can agree the LNP will finish third.”
Ms Trad holds the seat on a 3.6 per cent margin and garnered 36 per cent of the primary vote in 2017 to defeat the Greens’ Amy MacMahon who won 34.4 per cent of the primary vote.
Staff writers 7.22pm: Marginal seats to watch in the south east
The seats to watch tonight will be Aspley, Mansfield, Oodgeroo in Brisbane, the Gold Coast and Pumicestone in the southeast.
James Hall 7.00pm: Polls close on chaotic election day
The polls have closed on what was a chaotic and stormy day for Queensland’s state election.
Hail pelted much of the state’s south east, with the Bureau of Meteorology warning of “life threatening storms”.
But political leaders were also forced to shield themselves from impassioned volunteers at voting booths as Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk copped a spray from an LNP supporter.
Ms Palaszczuk is hoping to become the first woman to be re-elected for a third term, while Opposition Leader Deb Frecklington is fighting to force a change of government in the Sunshine State.
A smiling Ms Palaszczuk waved at locals as she walked out of the Inala polling site before the volunteer started berating her as she walked away.
“209,000 people out of work Premier. It’s about time it stopped. Open the borders,” the man can be heard yelling to Ms Palaszczuk.
In response, the Premier said: “Oh there we go, that’s exactly what the LNP want. They want the borders open. There you heardit exactly today,” Ms Palaszczuk says before walking off.
Up in Townsville, police were forced to move along a local who was filmed abusing a candidate at a voting booth.
A video, released earlier today by Sky News, showed the voter having a spat with Katter’s Australian Party candidate Josh Schwarz at a polling booth.
“You liar! You absolute liar. You’re a disgrace,” Mr Schwarz yelled at the man.
“How dare you? That is disgraceful.”
.@QldPolice move in to Mundingburra polling booth to move on a local, following his spat with @KAPteam candidate for Townsville Josh Schwarz @SkyNewsAust pic.twitter.com/T5x1wkwDf8
— Julia Bradley (@_juliabradley) October 31, 2020
But most Queenslanders avoided the drama across the state, with a record number casting their vote early.
As of 3.30pm on Friday, more than 1.2 million had already had their say — more than a fifth of the state’s population.
The Electoral Commission of Queensland will now begin the counting to decide who will lead the Sunshine State for the next four years.
Earlier in the year, technical difficulties from the commission at the Brisbane council election caused significant delaysin the results being announced.
At the time, Ms Palaszczuk described the failure as “pretty disappointing”.
“They’ve got one job … to make sure they can run an election,” she said.
READ MORE: Palaszczuk’s looking good, but don’t bet your house on it
Ellen Ransley 6.13pm: Palaszczuk spends day painting the town red
Queensland Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk, hoping for re-election to her third time, has spent election day painting the town (Brisbane) red, in a multi-seat blitz across Brisbane.
Having spent a significant chunk of the election campaign in and around regional Queensland, Ms Palaszczuk has dedicated the last few hours before polls close to the Brisbane seats she’s desperate to hold on to in order to win a majority government.
Her first stop of the day was Aspley State School, in the Aspley electorate in Brisbane’s north.
The electorate is currently held by Labor’s Bart Mellish with a margin of just 1.2 per cent.
The latest Sportsbet figures have Mr Mellish almost neck-and-neck with his LNP opposition Amanda Cooper, with Mr Mellish the favourite at $1.85, and Ms Cooper at $1.90.
Ms Palaszczuk elbow-bumped voters and Mr Mellish.
She then made a trip to the inner-city seat of McConnel, held by Labor stalwart Grace Grace, who is at risk of losing her seat to the Greens.
Ms Grace holds the seat with 7.9 per cent, and the seat is therefore not considered marginal, but the latest Sportsbet figures have Greens candidate Kirsten Lovejoy in front.
The favourites for Ms Lovejoy are $1.80, while Ms Grace is at $2.
Ms Palaszczuk then headed to her own electorate of Inala, which her father Henry held before her, to cast her own vote and possibly pick up a democracy sausage.
–NCA Newswire
Ellen Ransley 5.23pm: ‘Life threatening’ storms lashing Queensland
Queensland is on Saturday afternoon being lashed with “life threatening storms”, as nine storm cells make their move over southeast Queensland.
The Bureau of Meteorology said hail of 13cm had been reported at Hillcrest, south of Brisbane, and almost 30,000 properties are without power on Saturday afternoon.
West of the city, the Queensland Police and QFES have declared an Emergency Alert for Lockyer Valley, Ipswich, Laidley, Jimboomba and Amberley residents, where severe thunderstorms are forecast which would bring destructive winds and giant hail.
Another alert has been activated for parts of the Gold Coast, namely Woodridge, Beenleigh, Southport and Coomera as a dangerous storm tracks over the city.
⚡🚨⚠ï¸âš¡ LIFE THREATENING STORMS IN #SEQLD, including #GoldCoast #Logan #Brisbane #Ipswich councils with 13cm HAIL reported at Hillcrest. Stay safe #Queensland. Listen to @QldFES advice and ABC radio for the latest as well as our warnings at https://t.co/r4IpFfEevt. pic.twitter.com/xkJClp6IoP
— Bureau of Meteorology, Queensland (@BOM_Qld) October 31, 2020
Massive hailstones were detected in Logan, south of Brisbane.
This was at our place at Hillcrest pic.twitter.com/dbcvMnAuWg
— LilllyT (@LilllyT) October 31, 2020
Trains were suspended on the Beenleigh and Gold COast lines between Helensvale and Kuraby due to overhead powerlines being down, prompting delays of up to 60 minutes.
The Bureau of Meteorology has warned people in southeast Queensland to prepare for more dangerous thunderstorms on Saturday afternoon and night.
“The Bureau is warning the situation is volatile and continuing to change quickly, and for their own safety people should actively monitor the Bureau and Emergency Services for updates and warnings as they will continue to change.
“Some of these storms are fast-moving and fast-forming, so people should consider whether they need to be outside or on the road.
“The threat will continue throughout the afternoon and into tonight.”
In Springfield Lakes, one car was completely damaged.
The damage to cars in Springfield Lakes. Every single car not in cover totalled #bnestorm #bneweather pic.twitter.com/JFpU39aXKG
— Tom Armitt (@tom8375) October 31, 2020
One Brisbane resident made the best of a bad situation, subbing out his regular whiskey stones for hail stones.
You see hail. I see bourbon on the rocks. #bnestorm pic.twitter.com/ymzAoEd3Vy
— MrTonyTonyMacaroni (@TonyCollis) October 31, 2020
ABC Queensland’s weather guru Jenny Woodward said it was the “first time” she has seen nine storms in a warning area.
Nine storms in the warning area!!! First time I have seen that. Take great care everyone. pic.twitter.com/Dgpc9Q68zl
— Jenny Woodward (@jennyweather) October 31, 2020
Energex said at least 1000 customers had lost power in Brisbane, nearly 12,000 on the Gold Coast, and more than 16,000 in Logan.
Hail is really big right now #Qld pic.twitter.com/ptGSf2RtTp
— 🩸d e m o n o f h a r v e s t 🩸 (@roux_mu) October 31, 2020
Hail storms in qld brothers car got smashed ! pic.twitter.com/KEgJ3UuUew
— SavageBinx (@Savage_binx) October 31, 2020
Wild storm smashing the northern Gold Coast. @7NewsBrisbane @sunriseon7 #qldstorms pic.twitter.com/oOU1knP9nW
— Bianca Stone (@Bianca_Stone) October 31, 2020
I know I just saw the hail. pic.twitter.com/dN5Lg6vcHp
— Leah (@Bat_Girl76) October 31, 2020
Mandarin for scale pic.twitter.com/HwRSVtThjY
— Shane Boulden (@shaneboulden) October 31, 2020
The election day storms prompted a polling booth to shut down during Saturday’s state election.
The Electoral Commission of Queensland confirmed a polling booth in Ipswich had been shut down after a hailstorm lashed the electorate. — NCA Newswire
READ MORE: Why have we not done more on climate change?
James Hall 5.07pm: Hanson ‘quietly confident’ in four seats
The polls have predicted One Nation to struggle in Queensland’s election but party leader Pauline Hanson says she’s “quietlyconfident” of pulling off a remarkable upset.
The Senator told Sky News on Saturday afternoon she expects her minor party to hold power in the central Queensland electorateof Mirani, but will make sitting members in Rockhampton, Keppel and Cook nervous.
One Nation, along with Katter’s Australian Party and the Greens, is hoping to grasp the balance of power if neither majorparty is able to form a majority government in Saturday’s state poll.
“A hung parliament will be a good thing for Queensland,” according to Ms Hanson, saying it will allow the minors to keep Laboror the LNP honest.
Ms Hanson has heavily lobbied the incumbent Labor Government to open the borders despite the threat from the coronavirus pandemic.
“This has been a political ploy, it’s been a political decision made by Annastacia Palaszczuk,” she told Sky.
“We haven’t had any cases through rural and regional Queensland for months and yet it has been shut down.
“Do we really want to give her another four years?”
But Ms Hanson’s “presence and profile has diminished in this election”, according to University of Queensland political scientistDr Glenn Kefford.
Dr Paul Williams from Griffith University said the strategy could be “the beginning of the end of One Nation as we understandit”, as Senator Hanson forgoes political stunts such as wearing a burka in the Senate.
Instead, the minor party leader has opted for a boots-on-the-ground approach, trekking across the wide expanses of the stateto visit as many of the 90 seats One Nation is contesting in Saturday’s election.
Ms Hanson told NCA NewsWire her campaign style hadn’t changed, but she had adopted a different approach to the Queenslandregions where One Nation typically gained the most support.
“What I’ve noticed throughout this election is regional media has been cut to the bone by way of staff since the 2017 Queenslandelection,” the senator said.
“There aren’t the resources in regional TV, radio, or newspapers that there was when I was first re-elected, and thereforemedia coverage for One Nation has also been limited.”
Dr Williams said the minor party could be a victim of circumstances as the coronavirus health crisis and its ensuing economiccollapse dominated the needs of constituents.
“One Nation doesn’t campaign on economics any more, it tends to campaign on cultural matters – immigrants, refugees, gaysin schools etc,” he said.
“And when people are worried about where their next meal is coming from, those things don’t matter.”
READ MORE: Victoria mulls ‘cautious’ return to offices
Ellen Ransley 4.25pm: Punters make late switch on election result
Late betting money is backing a Labor minority to rule Queensland after Saturday’s election.
Betting agency Sportsbet at lunchtime on Saturday had a Labor minority at $1.95 – days after the odds were just $1.73 for a Labor majority, compared to $4 for a Labor minority.
The odds for an LNP minority stand at $2.75, whereas that of an LNP majority is at $10.
Punters have Labor as the next government either way, with odds of $1.20 compared to the LNP’s $4.
If the punters are on the money, Labor leader and incumbent Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk will have to change her mind ongoing “no deals”.
Ms Palaszczuk had repeatedly asked Queensland for a majority government in the lead up to the election, but if the bettingagencies are anything to go by, she might have to settle for a minority.
As for whether that will be with the Greens or Katter’s Australian Party remains to be seen.
The late surge came along with changes to a number of key seats, most notable in Pumicestone, said to be the “bellwether” seat of the election. Labor has surged to $1.50, with the LNP trailing behind at $2.50.
In Currumbin, Labor has taken over as favourite to win, with the odds firming from $2 to $1.85, while the LNP has driftedfrom $1.75 to $1.95.
If the betting markets are an indication, Labor will lose South Brisbane and McConnel to the Greens, with the minor partyat odds of $1.25 to Labor’s $3.75 and $1.80 to Labor’s $2 respectively.
Sportsbet have Labor picking up two of the three key Townsville seats. They’re the favourites in Mundingburra at $1.65 (LNP$2.10) and in Thuringowa at $2.10 (KAP $2.50), while the LNP is favoured to pick up Townsville with odds of $1.50 againstLabor’s $2.50.
Of the nine key southeast Queensland seats, here’s what the odds are on Sportsbet as of 2pm on Saturday, October 31.
Bonney: LNP $1.25, Labor $4
Burleigh: LNP $1.30, Labor $3.25
Caloundra: LNP $1.75 to Labor $2.10
Currumbin: Labor $1.85 to LNP $1.95
Gaven: Labor $1.50, LNP $2.50
Glass House: LNP $1.80, Labor $2
Maryborough: Labor: $1.10, ONP: $5.50
Pumicestone: Labor $1.50, LNP $2.50
and Theodore: LNP $1.50, Labor $2.50
Other seats to watch include:
Cooper: Labor $1.10, Greens $5.50
McConnel: Greens $1.80, Labor $2
Mundingburra: Labor $1.65, LNP $2.10
South Brisbane: Greens $1.25, Labor $2.75
Thuringowa: Labor $2.10, KAP $2.50
Townsville: Labor $1.95, LNP $1.95
Whitsunday: LNP $2.10, KAP $2.50, NQF: $4.50
— NCA Newswire
READ MORE: Palaszczuk’s looking good, but don’t bet your house on it
Blake Antrobus 3.20pm: Premier hits back at poll booth heckler
Queensland Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk has fired back at a heckler who confronted her at a polling booth, saying open borders was “exactly what the LNP wants”.
Ugly scenes have unfolded outside a Brisbane polling booth as the Queensland Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk cast her vote.
Ms Palaszczuk has spent the day visiting polling booths across Brisbane while LNP Leader Deb Frecklington continues her last-minute blitz for marginal Townsville seats.
But ugly scenes unfolded at Inala this morning when the Premier was confronted by an angry volunteer, wearing an LNP shirt, while casting her vote at a state school this morning.
JUST IN: Premier @AnnastaciaMP heckled over the border closure by an LNP volunteer while voting in Inala. LNP Candidate Miljenka Perovic says @DebFrecklington will "absolutely" open the borders @10NewsFirst @10NewsFirstQLD pic.twitter.com/CJ5GV7jIrw
— Johnpaul Gonzo (@JohnpaulGonzo) October 31, 2020
The heckler confronted the Premier while shouting about job losses and the border closures before screaming “don’t bully me” as Ms Palaszczuk walked off.
“209,000 people out of work Premier. It‘s about time it stopped. Open the borders,” he was heard yelling to Ms Palaszczuk.
Ms Palaszczuk fired back, saying it was “exactly what the LNP want”.
“They want the borders open. There you heard it exactly today,” she said.
A heckler has confronted Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk outside an Inala polling booth over border closures and unemployment after she cast her vote#qldelection #QLDvotes2020 pic.twitter.com/LmFIQSD1Iu
— Blake Antrobus (@bt_ant) October 31, 2020
Member for Oxley, Milton Dick shouted out: “That’s what the LNP are campaigning on today”, as the pair walked away.
The heckler shouted back to Mr Dick: “Don’t bully me, bully boy!” before others moved to calm the man down.
“Hey, no yelling,” one man can be heard saying. “Keep it down.”
READ MORE: Angela Shanahan — Premier did well but Melbourne did better
Ellen Ransley 2.38pm: ‘It’s her or me:’ Leaders make their final pitches
Annastacia Palaszczuk and Deb Frecklington have made their final pitches to Queensland voters on election day, despite millions having already cast their votes.
Both leaders are spending the final hours of the campaign in a multi-seat blitz – Ms Palaszczuk in and around Brisbane, and Ms Frecklington in and around Townsville.
In a final bid to voters in the Courier Mail, both women have summed up why Queenslanders should vote for them to lead the state for the next four years.
Ms Palaszczuk, who has run a campaign with the catch phrase of “keeping Queensland safe” has repeatedly said she’s focused on helping the state’s economy by creating jobs in fields like manufacturing, providing free TAFE for young people, and to keep Queenslanders heading in the right direction as the world navigates a global pandemic.
Other key election promises from Labor include introducing euthanasia legislation, delivering a budget by the end of November, pursuing a 50 per cent renewable energy target by 2030, providing free female sanitary items to 120 state schools, and creating a “second Bruce Highway” from Charters Tower to Mungindi to take trucks off the major highway.
In her own words, Ms Palaszczuk told voters they had “a very clear and very important choice to make about the future of our state.”
“Rebuilding our economy, training our people, growing our regions and reinvesting in schools, hospitals and services,” Ms Palaszczuk wrote.
Ms Frecklington, on the other hand, wants Queensland “back at the top of the economic ladder”, and has promised big-ticket “big, bold, ambitious “election items like building a second M1, four-laning the Bruce Highway, and the New Bradfield Scheme.
Other key LNP promises include providing a $300 car registration rebate in time for Christmas, reviewing abortion-on-request legislation, delivering a budget “within the first 100 days” and a controversial youth curfew to be trialled in Townsville and Cairns, as well as enacting tougher laws for gun crime and domestic violence.
Ms Frecklington said the LNP’s plan would “stimulate the economy, create 150,000 jobs and lead Queensland out of recession.”
READ MORE: Wyatt calls for funding checks
Jamie Walker 2pm: Northern seats could be key to election outcome
Liberal National Party Leader Deb Frecklington has launched a polling day blitz of Townsville, underlining predictions that the northern centre’s three state seats could be key to the Queensland election outcome.
Labor is fighting to hold the trio of marginal electorates – Townsville, Mundingburra, Thuringowa – and a wipeout would threaten its hold on majority government.
Ms Frecklington stopped first in Mundingburra where she voted, before heading to polling stations in the seats of Townsville, Thuringowa then Hinchinbrook north of the city, held by Katter’s Australian Party.
Former federal MP for the seat of Herbert, Labor’s Cathy O’Toole, was spotted handing out how to votes for Hinchinbrook Labor candidate Paul Jacob.
Ms Frecklington’s election-day sweep is unusual, as the leaders typically return to their home seats to vote — in her case, Kingaroy-based Nanango northwest of Brisbane.
Annastacia Palaszczuk voted in her southside Brisbane electorate of Inala where she was heckled by an apparent LNP supporter demanding that she throw open the Queensland border.
The Premier announced on Friday NSW residents living outside Sydney would be allowed to cross, but Sydneysiders and Victorians continue to be banned due to the COVID concern.
The man interrupted Ms Palaszczuk while she was talking to reporters, saying: ”Open the borders. Consider the travel industry”.
Ms Palaszczuk fired back: “Oh there you go. That’s exactly what the LNP want.”
The LNP needs a net gain of nine seats to reach the 47 required to take majority government, but faces voters trailing Labor by three points in The Weekend Australian’s exclusive Newspoll, 51.5-48.5 per cent.
With a skinny majority of just two seats, Labor can ill afford losses and is under heavy pressure in the regions, elevating Townsville as a crucial battleground.
READ MORE: Simon Benson — Federal powers firmly in the spotlight
Dennis Shanahan 1.30pm: From ripple effect to shockwaves, look out
The Queensland state election result, whatever it is, will have a direct impact on five federal parliamentary leaders, moving through a scale from disastrous, through benignly neutral to positively lifesaving.
It is the leaders of the smallest parties, One Nation’s Pauline Hanson and the Greens’ Adam Bandt, who stand to gain the most and least. But how those minor parties perform will have a dramatic effect on the Nationals’ Michael McCormack and the ALP’s Anthony Albanese.
Scott Morrison, as Liberal leader and Prime Minister, has the least to lose and least to gain.
While the headline outcome will be between the Queensland state Liberal National Party and the Queensland Labor Party the real, inside measurement of loss or gain will depend on the dissection of the Liberal and Nationals vote versus One Nation, and Katter’s Australian Party and the Greens’ versus Labor.
Read Dennis Shanahan’s full analysis of the Queensland election here.
Madura McCormack 12.50pm: Frecklington caps off north Queensland blitz
Opposition Leader Deb Frecklington has capped off her election day blitz of Townsville with a quick stop at Bunnings, after coming across zero democracy sausage stalls out of four polling booths she visited.
The official democracy sausage map shows Townsville had only two stalls across the entire city, though Hinchinbrook LNP candidate Scott Piper said he knew of stalls at two booths in his electorate.
This include St Anthony’s Catholic College, in Deeragun, and St Benedict’s Catholic School, in Shaw.
Ms Frecklington blitzed through Townsville’s electorates, stopping first in the seat of Mundingburra where she voted, before heading to booths in the seat of Townsville, Thuringowa then Hinchinbrook.
Former federal MP for the seat of Herbert, Labor’s Cathy O’Toole, was spotted handing out how to votes for Hinchinbrook Labor candidate Paul Jacob.
Asked how she believed the election would go, Ms O’Toole said she expected Labor to win a third term as she “couldn’t see any reason” why people wouldn’t stick with Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk.
Asked if she thought Labor would hold the marginal seats of Mundingburra, Thuringowa and Townsville, Ms O’Toole said she hoped so.
READ MORE: Money counts in ‘dominating billionaire’s’ life story
James Hall 12.15pm: Labor’s most divisive figure ‘99 per cent gone’
Just a few months ago, Jackie Trad was one of the most powerful figures in Queensland.
The former deputy premier was a force among Labor’s left faction until a corruption scandal forced her resignation in May.
Ms Trad was investigated by the Crime and Corruption Commission over claims she had interfered with the recruitment of a principal at the Inner City South State Secondary College.
This came after being cleared by the CCC for failing to declare a $695,000 house in Woolloongabba, an inner-Brisbane suburb, following reports in The Courier-Mail.
And now, as Ms Trad trails the Greens candidate in the South Brisbane electorate, Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk has distanced herself from her former deputy.
Ms Palaszczuk has insisted Ms Trad won’t be invited back into cabinet if Labor retains power at the state poll on Saturday and hasn’t appeared to offer much support to the former treasurer’s campaign.
South Brisbane has been a Labor stronghold for decades, but Ms Trad risks succumbing to Greens challenger Amy MacMahon.
Professor Susan Harris Rimmer, Policy Innovation Hub director at Griffith University, said Labor should be less interested in how Ms Trad was perceived and more focused on keeping her in power.
“The imperative is for her to hold her seat, so that should be the strategy. All of the rest of it can wait,” Professor Harris Rimmer said.
“It’s premature to concentrate on cabinet at the moment because it might be a hung parliament.”
Professor Harris Rimmer said the people of South Brisbane were more concerned with local issues such as infrastructure as well as clean energy and youth jobs.
She told NCA NewsWire the election result would “absolutely” come down to a couple of hundred votes, but Dr Williams was more certain Ms MacMahon would pinch the seat for the Greens.
“I think Trad is 99 per cent gone,” he said.
Dr Williams said the best chance the incumbent member had was LNP voters who couldn’t stomach the Greens who might preference Labor ahead of Ms MacMahon.
“But given Jackie’s primary vote is so low at 32 per cent, that’s a tough ask,” the political scientist said.
“I just can’t see how she will survive. Labor folk tell me I’m wrong, but I just can’t see it.”
NCA NewsWire contacted Ms Trad for comment.
READ MORE: Trad’s tough fight for re-election
Darren Cartwright 11.30am: More than a million pre-poll votes already cast
Of the 3.3 million registered voters, more than one million pre-poll votes had been cast by election eve.
Another 400,000 postal votes have been returned to the Electoral Commission Queensland (ECQ) while tens of thousands more postal votes are outstanding.
In addition, 12,000 electors registered for telephone voting with about 80 per cent of those having used this service.
It was a similar story in 2017 with just 57 per cent of electors turning up to a polling booth on election day while 25 per cent of votes were cast pre-poll and a further 10 per cent were postal votes.
Postal votes need to be completed by 6pm on election day and arrive at the ECQ by November 10 to be eligible to be counted.
There’s no shortage of candidates or parties to choose from with a record 12 political parties and 597 candidates standing on Saturday, 144 more wannabe politicians than contested the 2017 election which Labor won after securing 48 of the 93 seats.
Ms Palaszczuk won in 2017 after Labor had to form a minority government in 2015, deposing one-term premier Campbell Newman in an upset victory.
Having entered the state political arena in 2006 after winning the seat of Inala, Ms Palaszczuk has promised to serve a full term in office should she be successful.
The winner will be first to be guaranteed a fixed four-year term, one more than previously guaranteed, following a referendum in 2016.
Ms Frecklington is not only trying to lead the LNP to victory but remove a sitting Queensland government for only the seventh time since 1915.
READ MORE: Queensland — Beautiful one day, borders shut the next
Christine Kellett 10.40am: Premier hits booth at must-win seat
Queensland Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk has been out and about in Brisbane, popping up at a polling booth in Aspley earlier.
The must-win seat is held by held by Labor’s Bart Mellish with a tight margin of just 1.2 per cent.
The Premier was out lending support and greeting voters at Aspley State School. She would not take questions from reporters but confirmed zero new coronavirus cases in Queensland overnight, the Courier Mail reports.
READ MORE: Gerard Henderson — Democracy under attack from censorious Left
Christine Kellett 10.07am: Deb Frecklington casts her vote
LNP Opposition leader Deb Frecklington has cast her ballot in Townsville.
Accompanied by husband Jason, the LNP leader voted at Oonoonba State School this morning, and is expected to head straight back to Brisbane to await the result.
A record number of Queenslanders have already voted, with more than 1m pre-poll ballots cast.
READ MORE: A complete list of polling booths in every electorate
Jamie Walker 10am: Labor set for third term, but it’s tight
Annastacia Palaszczuk is poised to win the Queensland election and deliver Labor a third consecutive term of state government, Newspoll shows.
The benefits of incumbency during the COVID crisis coupled with a superior campaign by the ALP position the party to overpower the Liberal National Party, though the election result is likely to be tight and a hung parliament remains possible.
The Weekend Australian’s exclusive Newspoll puts Labor ahead of the LNP, 51.5 per cent to 48.5 per cent, after preferences. This would return the government and possibly improve its narrow two-seat majority in the 93-seat parliament.
But an electoral pendulum stacked against the ALP — with 14 of its existing 48 seats on margins of less than 4 per cent, many in the state’s volatile regions — and the unknown quantity of up to 70 per cent of the electorate voting early are wildcards that leave the LNP an outside chance to take minority government.
Newspoll confirms that both major parties have pulled votes from One Nation, which shed 27 per cent of what it secured at the previous state election, down from a vote of 13.7 per cent in 2017 to 10 per cent. Labor’s primary vote, however, remained steady on 37 per cent through the campaign while the LNP’s slipped one point to 36 per cent. The Greens are unchanged on 11 per cent, up marginally on 2017, while most of the remaining 6 per cent goes to Katter’s Australian Party, a force only in north Queensland. Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party has had negligible impact.
Read the full story here.
Sarah Elks 9.30am: Death changed Premier’s mind
Annastacia Palaszczuk changed her mind on euthanasia despite her “deep Christian values” after her grandmother died in pain during the pandemic.
The Queensland Premier and Opposition Leader Deb Frecklington faced off at the second and final debate of the campaign on Friday, clashing over voluntary assisted dying, the political future of former Labor deputy Jackie Trad, integrity scandals, and COVID-19 border closures.
The Premier surprised many when she announced, midcampaign, that she would move to fast-track the legalisation of voluntary assisted dying if re-elected, scrapping an earlier decision not to rush analysis by the Queensland Law Reform Commission.
Ms Frecklington refused to say on Friday what her personal stance was, and accused Ms Palaszczuk of politicising the issue to win the marginal Liberal National Party-held Gold Coast electorate of Currumbin.
“What I want to see is to make sure no one dies in pain or alone, and that’s why I’ve advocated for more palliative care and more compassion,” Ms Frecklington said. “(But) I would never ever politicise the issue like Annastacia Palaszczuk has … it appears it’s just been for the Premier to secure Currumbin.”
But the Premier said she had changed her mind on euthanasia after experiencing the “distressing” and painful death of her grandmother during the coronavirus pandemic.
“My views have changed on this,’’ she said. “ hold deep Christian values, but it’s not up to me to tell other people how to end their lives. I don’t want anyone to suffer, I don’t want anyone to have to go through that: it’s a personal matter for a family, for an individual, and their medical practitioners, it’s not for me to make a decision on behalf of them.”
Churches reacted angrily to Ms Palaszczuk’s announcement that she would introduce legislation in February to legalise VAD, faster than the original time frame of the commission reporting back in March.
READ MORE: Voters trust me, despite integrity scandals, says Premier
Jamie Walker 9am: Who won Friday’s leaders’ debate?
It was a stronger performance from a more aggressive and sharper Deb Frecklington. The LNP leader hit the mark when she went after Annastacia Palaszczuk over the government’s dubious integrity record and the absence of a plan to paydown state debt due to hit $102bn with the add-on of COVID.
But Palaszczuk showed once again she is the difference between the two sides. When Frecklington ducked the question of where she stood on voluntary euthanasia – an issue unleashed on the campaign when the Premier announced a returned Labor government would bring in enabling legislation in February – a clearly emotional Palaszczuk talked about her grandmother’s recent death and how this had contributed to her change of heart.
Read the full verdict here.
More Coverage
How retail umpire mediated a row while on Ukraine mercy mission
Food Code’s Chris Leptos spends his days arbitrating disputes between suppliers and supermarkets, but after hours he’s part of an international group helping to ease the plight of Ukrainians.
Pesutto in last-ditch race to save role
Embattled Victorian Liberal leader John Pesutto is facing a likely spill motion next week as foes mull how to engineer a bloodless coup.