Queensland election: Labor set for third term, but it’s tight, Newspoll shows

Annastacia Palaszczuk is poised to win the Queensland election and deliver Labor a third consecutive term of state government, Newspoll shows.

Queensland Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk. Picture: AAP

Annastacia Palaszczuk is poised to win the Queensland election and deliver Labor a third consecutive term of state government, Newspoll shows.

The benefits of incumbency during the COVID crisis coupled with a superior campaign by the ALP position the party to overpower the Liberal National Party, though the election result is likely to be tight and a hung parliament remains possible.

The Weekend Australian’s exclusive Newspoll puts Labor ahead of the LNP, 51.5 per cent to 48.5 per cent, after preferences. This would return the government and possibly improve its narrow two-seat majority in the 93-seat parliament.

But an electoral pendulum stacked against the ALP — with 14 of its existing 48 seats on margins of less than 4 per cent, many in the state’s volatile regions — and the unknown quantity of up to 70 per cent of the electorate voting early are wildcards that leave the LNP an outside chance to take minority government.

Newspoll confirms that both major parties have pulled votes from One Nation, which shed 27 per cent of what it secured at the previous state election, down from a vote of 13.7 per cent in 2017 to 10 per cent.

Opposition Leader Deb Frecklington. Picture: AAP

Labor’s primary vote, however, remained steady on 37 per cent through the campaign while the LNP’s slipped one point to 36 per cent. The Greens are unchanged on 11 per cent, up marginally on 2017, while most of the remaining 6 per cent goes to Katter’s Australian Party, a force only in north Queensland. Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party has had negligible impact.

Newspoll shows that Labor ends the 26-day campaign where it began — ahead of the LNP on the two-party-preferred vote, but not decisively. The mid-campaign survey­ published on October 17 had the ALP in front 52-48 per cent.

An uptick in One Nation’s base vote from 9 to 10 per cent over the past fortnight appears to have come at the expense of the LNP, accounting for the marginal fall in the opposition party’s primary support.

The Premier’s popularity is still the government’s prime asset and has remained rock-solid, while Ms Frecklington’s personal rat­ings have sagged, Newspoll shows.

In what looms as the key difference between the two sides, 62 per cent of voters are satisfied with the Premier’s performance, only one point down on the support she took into the campaign. The 33 per cent dissatisfied with her is unchanged, with 4 per cent undecided.

By contrast, satisfaction with Ms Frecklington dipped two points to 35 per cent over the past two weeks and those unhappy with her increased four points to 48 per cent. Seventeen per cent of voters are still uncommitted on this question.

On who would be the better premier, there is daylight between Ms Palaszczuk’s approval rating and her challenger’s, 56 per cent to 30 per cent, representing another drop in Ms Frecklington’s personal numbers during the campaign.

Ms Palaszczuk’s team was buoyed by her strong performance during an election-eve leaders debate­ in Brisbane after she announced a relaxation in Queensland’s border lockdown to allow entry to NSW residents outside Greater Sydney. Crossings remain closed to Victorians and Sydneysiders, angering the airlines, tourism operators and business groups.

One insider said Labor’s prospects of keeping majority government could come down to the marginal seat of Aspley on Brisbane’s northside, which it holds by 1.17 per cent, and how many of its three vulnerable Townsville seats fell to the LNP.

“Labor will win the most seats but there is a chance we will fall below 47 and then we are in dangerous territory,” the insider said, referencing the break-even point to control the parliament.

A senior LNP source predicted Labor would lose five seats, offset by at least one gain — not enough to get the conservative party over the line to govern in its own right, but putting in play minority government with KAP and possibly Noosa indepe­ndent Sandy Bolton, who is likely to be returned.

On Newspoll’s numbers, One Nation will struggle to save its one MP, Stephen Andrew, in his northern seat of Mirani.

The LNP has 38 seats and needs a net gain of nine to win a majority, which is well beyond its grasp, ­according to the poll.

In her final pitch to voters, Ms Frecklington slammed the government for presiding over high unemployment and bankruptcies, low business confidence, poor NAP­LAN outcomes and expanding hospital waiting lists.

Ms Palaszczuk asked Queenslanders to “stay the course” with a government that had protected them from COVID-19 and had a plan for post-pandemic recovery. “You know me, I hope you trust me and I trust you,” she said. “I will take the tough decisions because I have your interests at heart …”