It is the leaders of the smallest parties, One Nation’s Pauline Hanson and the Greens’ Adam Bandt, who stand to gain the most and least. But how those minor parties perform will have a dramatic effect on the Nationals’ Michael McCormack and the ALP’s Anthony Albanese.
Scott Morrison, as Liberal leader and Prime Minister, has the least to lose and least to gain.
While the headline outcome will be between the Queensland state Liberal National Party and the Queensland Labor Party the real, inside measurement of loss or gain will depend on the dissection of the Liberal and Nationals vote versus One Nation, and Katter’s Australian Party and the Greens’ versus Labor.
Morrison is popular in Queensland — he’s secure, he has campaigned, but not to the extent that it will be seen as his “loss” if the LNP goes down.
An LNP win or forcing Labor into minority government will be seen as a Liberal victory federally.
Albanese is not popular in Queensland, has kept campaigning to a minimum and won’t gain much if Annastacia Palaszczuk’s government is returned. But if state Labor goes down, losing ground to pro-mining conservatives and the inner-Brisbane Greens, it will be seen as yet more policy paralysis and become a test of his leadership.
McCormack has potentially even more to lose than Albanese. As Nationals leader he is not strong — his party is divided and his Liberal Coalition colleagues are not happy.
If the Nationals lose ground in regional and far north Queensland, it will foment rebelliousness and give full life to at least two campaigns under way to replace McCormack.
Bandt has the most to gain and the least to lose. If the Greens prove to be seen as an alternative to Labor, as was the case in the ACT election two weeks ago, the party’s support will rise after flatlining or declining for years.
Hanson has the most to lose and the least to gain. If support shifts away from One Nation, as the polls suggest, her party will have been supplanted by KAP in Queensland and deprived of the leverage of offering preference deals at a federal election to the Liberals and Nationals.
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